Who Will Find Victory Lane’s Desert Mirage at Phoenix?

Photo Credit to Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

NASCAR

Stratta’s Six: Who Can Stand Tall Like a Cactus as Phoenix Winner?

Rising from the Gila River and falling in the shadow of Rattlesnake Hill is one of NASCAR’s most unique stops–Phoenix Raceway. The quirky one-mile oval has character unlike anywhere else on the circuit, and has seen many drivers conquer it before. Only four months removed from hosting 2025’s championship race, the desert gem now awaits a new face in victory lane. Here are a few who hope to celebrate in the Valley of the Sun and propel themselves onward into the spring stretch.

Tyler Reddick

Yet to lose a race this season, can Tyler Reddick go 4-4 in Phoenix? The 23XI Racing driver has not won here before, but that didn’t stop him from taking both Daytona and Atlanta. The No. 45 has been third here twice, coming in two of the last four March races. Reddick hopes to improve on this early season groove he’s found around the desert mile.

“My experiences in spring in Phoenix [for] a number of years, I think dating back to even the start of this car, we’ve been able to go there and be knocking on the door,” Reddick said. “Last year we had the power steering failure that kind of knocked us out of it. Two years ago I remember me and Denny got together, the caution came out in the middle of the cycle. In my opinion, we go to the spring Phoenix race, we’re typically, like, right there. For whatever reason, when we go in the fall, we’re a little bit off.”

“But I feel like we’ve, again, kind of like we’ve done [at COTA]. I’m really excited to see what we have for speed and pace over the next two weekends because we’ve worked really hard to improve things here. We’ve worked hard to kind of rethink how we get around Phoenix, and we’ve just kind of doubled down on the things that we’ve been improving at Vegas. Honestly, I’m very excited to see what kind of pace we have at Phoenix and Vegas as it comes up.”

Across 12 Phoenix starts, Reddick’s seen four top-10s including his pair of third-place results. The history-making streak he’s on to start this year could easily extend past Phoenix. Reddick spent almost 70 laps out front here two years ago. Reddick, 23XI Racing, and Michael Jordan have done nothing but continue to impress and defy odds in this young season. While the 45 may not be a head and shoulders favorite this weekend, he does have a fighting chance at a record-breaking four-peat.

Ryan Blaney

The man Reddick and many others will likely be trying to beat Sunday is Ryan Blaney. Largely lost in November’s championship celebration, Team Penske’s No. 12 finally broke through and won at arguably their best track. No longer winless at Phoenix, Blaney enters this weekend confident for another breakout run.

“I think we’ll take what we learned in November, from winning that race,” Blaney said. “I think we have a pretty good benchmark of how our Ford Mustang was and what changes we think we can make to be better. You definitely don’t want to change the whole thing up, because we were pretty competitive there last year. But you’re always trying to go different directions that you think are better. Next week we’ll have a pretty good idea of where our larger short track program is at. The good thing is we have a decent notebook from last year, so we’ll see.”

Through 20 Phoenix races, Blaney’s earned 14 top-10s and has a perfect .500 batting average for top-fives. This race a year ago would have been another strong result for the 12, until a late engine failure. That marked Blaney’s first Phoenix result worse than 10th since 2020. Along with close to 500 laps led and a 10.9 average finish here, Blaney looks best poised to put Ford back in the winner’s circle.

Kyle Larson

Despite winning the championship here in November, Kyle Larson never led a lap that day and finished third. This continued an electric streak for driver 5 in the desert–Larson’s only been outside the top-five once in the last six races. Still with only one win here from his first title-winning campaign, Larson believes he’s due for another shot at victory.

“I’m excited to get to this style of track this time of year,” Larson said. “It’s where you kind of learn where you’re at as an organization, speed-wise anyway, relative to the rest of the field. I’m even more excited this year because we have the new body style. I think everything we’ve learned about it to this point has been positive and definitely an upgrade, which it should be.”

Spring Phoenix has been very feast or famine for Larson in the Next Gen Car. 2023 saw the 5 dominate, leading over 200 laps only to fade to fourth. The two March races since have not seen the 5 lead a single lap. Third in both races here last year, Larson aims a few steps higher this time. With a series-best 10.3 average finish here, Larson looks to capitalize with the new Chevrolet specs.

Denny Hamlin

A lot of attention will rightfully be on Denny Hamlin this weekend. Last fall’s Phoenix championship finale was arguably the capstone on a hall of fame career, until overtime happened. The No. 11 Toyota led an astounding 208 laps from the pole, only to lose out to Larson’s two-tire pit call and finish sixth. Hamlin was also second here in March last year. The spring race saw Hamlin lose out by a bumper in a last lap pass. Can Hamlin regroup from last fall’s devastation and possibly earn a Phoenix recovery win?

“I’m just ready to compete,” Hamlin said. “We’ll see how it goes. But, you know, things change in the offseason, so you just you never you never know. We saw the Penske cars like go there and freaking dominate and then they go the next spring and run eighth. But, I don’t know. You just never know. The competition’s always working on things. I personally hope that I’ve got a super strong car, that my car handles just kind of how I wanted it for last fall. Certainly would love to get redemption on that track, but we’ll see how it goes.”

Not only was Hamlin class of the field for the lion’s share of November, he led the championship for all but one lap until overtime. Hamlin has endured a very tumultuous offseason only to be rewarded by 23XI Racing going 3-0 to start 2026. Perhaps it’s the boss’ time to shine again and conquer a track that took so much from him four months ago.

Christopher Bell

The man who beat Hamlin to March’s Phoenix win a year ago was teammate Christopher Bell. This race marked Bell’s own three-peat, and his second-straight spring win here. Bell will try and deliver Joe Gibbs Racing team 20 their own victory trifecta at one of his best tracks.

11th here in November ended a three-race Phoenix top-five streak for Bell, with at least 50 laps led each time. If anyone can silence the Chronicles of Reddick to start this season, Bell hopes to kick off his own victory party. The 20 enters this weekend at a dismal 24th in points. A rally is needed to reassert themselves as title threats.

Joey Logano

No Phoenix race preview is complete without at least addressing Joey Logano. The three-time champion won his two most recent Cups here, making up two of his four desert trophies. Logano’s shooting at just over .500 for Phoenix Raceway top-10s, including fourth here in November despite title elimination.

Surprisingly only one of Logano’s Phoenix wins came in the spring (2020), with only two top-10s in March since then. Heading into the desert tied for fifth in points, Logano aspires to leave Sunday with inroads on another championship quest.

Going back nine seasons, Christopher Bell is the only repeat winner of the spring Phoenix Raceway date. All three manufacturers have stars who are more than capable of taking the checkers first, with a lot on the line in the desert. The green flag flies in Arizona on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. One of these drivers hopes to be the lucky man to dial up a desert date with destiny.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo credit to Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images