Who Claims the 16 NASCAR Cup Series Chase Berths for 2026?

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NASCAR

Peter’s Chase Picks: 2026 NASCAR Cup Series

The 26-week race for The Chase is almost underway for the NASCAR Cup Series. In year one of a revised championship format, the top 16 drivers after race 26 will all earn a ticket to the title fight. Here are the title hopefuls I think will fill out this year’s grid, and drivers who I believe will fall just short.

Chase Locks

• Hendrick Motorsports will see all four of their drivers make The Chase with ease. Reigning champion Kyle Larson and William Byron are two of the winningest in the Next Gen era. Both should contend for the regular season championship. Consistency may keep Chase Elliott amid this battle as well. Fourth driver Alex Bowman ended 2025’s regular season ranked ninth, the 48 should easily hit this benchmark.

 

 

 

• Joe Gibbs Racing saw their big three drivers all finish 2025 top-five in points: Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Christopher Bell. It is not unrealistic to expect wins aplenty and deep Chase runs from each of them again. Hamlin makes his 21st bid at the elusive Bill France Cup after coming oh so close in November. Briscoe may only be better in year two with team No. 19. Bell, meanwhile, tops many championship favorite lists. JGR and Toyota have both been shut out of any Cup title in the 2020s; 2026 could be a banner year ahead for any or all of these drivers.

 

 

• Team Penske won three-straight Cup titles until last year, and was within one spot of a four-peat. Both of their past champions Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney should make The Chase with ease, as two of today’s top drivers. Blaney is coming off what was a career-best season in a few aspects. Even Year Logano also hopes for similar trends under the revised points structure. These two should be the top Fords on a regular basis, and take their share of checkered flags on multiple track types.

 

• 23XI Racing only saw one victory a season ago, amid a down year for this team across the board. One constant for this team will be Tyler Reddick, who should come out of the gates strong in 2026. Now riding a winless streak just over a year, the 45 aims to end this drought. Reddick won 2024’s regular season title and was fourth in points that year. With his talent, Reddick making the top 16 should be an afterthought.

• Trackhouse Racing saw a history-making rookie campaign in 2025 with Shane van Gisbergen. The Supercars ace from New Zealand won five times on road courses. ‘Win and you’re in’ led the Trackhouse driver to a maiden Chase showing. SVG would go onto finish 12th in points, and aims even higher for 2026. Despite no more golden Chase ticket from a win, SVG’s oval prowess shows visible improvement weekly. SVG has four road courses, all in the regular season, to take max points. Driver 97 would have been above the cut line a year ago under this format. I think he’ll exceed that with more standout oval and road course performances alike.

Should be Top 16

• Ross Chastain: Now the tenured Trackhouse veteran, Ross Chastain should maintain a top 16 berth regardless of winning. The No. 1 Chevrolet has yet to finish a Next Gen regular season ranked worse than 14th. This means the Chase is a very attainable feat. Chastain only found victory lane once last year in a last-to-first run at Charlotte in May. Now with a new crew chief, the No. 1 hopes to be P1 more often in 2026.

• Chris Buescher: If anyone should have been clamoring for a consistency-based format to return, it’s Chris Buescher. The first man on the outside looking in for the last two years’ playoffs, Buescher did everything but win his way into contention. The RFK Racing veteran amazingly had a mirroring 14.3 average finish across both seasons. Even with this, the No. 17 still fell short of the 16-man cut. If this run is merely matched by Buescher, then he should have no problem qualifying for The Chase. Buescher has not won since his postseason-upsetting win at Watkins Glen in August 2024. A winner in 2026 or not, the 17 should make the elite 16.

• Bubba Wallace: 23XI Racing’s lone win from all of 2025 came at the hands of Bubba Wallace in the Brickyard 400. That crown jewel win marked his second postseason showing, but first by a win. Wallace and team 23 ended 2025 ranked 11th in points, just shy of his career-high mark. Typically falling ahead of the 16th-place points cutoff, Wallace should be expected to make the dance again this year. Wallace was able to perform despite a down year for 23XI Racing. If they return to typical form, then the 23 may be a dark horse title contender.

Last Ones In

• Kyle Busch: Already a Daytona 500 pole winner this week, Kyle Busch aims for a bounce-back season. Riding a 93-race winless streak, Busch has missed the playoff cut the last two years. In spite of this, the No. 8 Chevrolet has been within eyesight of top-16 in points both years. Busch ended 2024’s regular season at 16th and was two points shy of matching that in 2025. Across both seasons, Busch did fall victim to some unforced errors. He overstepped a few times chasing victories under ‘win and you’re in.’ Now just needing a top-16 points berth, Busch is confident that a reset 8 team can hit this milestone. Busch chases a 17th postseason showing in 2026. He hopes to help turn RCR around with new crew chief Jim Pohlman.

• Ryan Preece: 2026 started off on the right foot for Ryan Preece, taking a maiden Cup win at the Clash. Now in his second year with RFK Racing, Preece eyes a big season ahead. A possible first career points victory and Chase berth both lie ahead for the Modified veteran. He was ranked 14th at the end of last year’s regular season. In short, Preece is in prime position to be even better in 2026. Preece hopes to keep the good times rolling over the coming months and take part in this championship fight.

Borderline Bubble Battle

• Austin Cindric: A playoff participant in three of the past four years, Austin Cindric looks to take the next step forward. Penske driver No. 2 has only been top-16 in points after 26 weeks twice before. It is likely he will be around the all-important cut line battle as months wind onward this year too. Cindric only saw two top-fives and five top-10s across all of 2025.  Whether or not Cindric succeeds in making the Chase in 2026 may come down to his consistency.

• Brad Keselowski: Perhaps nobody in Cup has as much of a question mark around their performance to start 2026 as Brad Keselowski. The driver and owner in the RFK Racing No. 6 was only medically cleared to return to race this week. In addition, he is still walking around with a cane. Following a horrendous first half of 2025, Keselowski saw a very impressive turnaround to close the year. If this form of Keselowski returns, the 2012 champion may join his teammates in the Chase. Questions surrounding his leg, however, leave some doubt in his ability to be at top-shape to start this season.

• Ty Gibbs: Still winless entering his fourth Cup season, questions are aplenty around Ty Gibbs. The No. 54 Toyota did make the 2024 playoffs on points, narrowly missing the cut last year. Gibbs’ 2025 season was highlighted by standout runs at Michigan, Mexico City, and Chicago. He also pushed teammate Chase Briscoe to the Talladega win. Gibbs has proven to be in the postseason hunt on points in each of the past few seasons. Expect more of the same from team 54 in 2026.

• Carson Hocevar: Pegged by many as the next first-time Cup winner, Carson Hocevar aims high in 2026. The third-year driver was painfully close to a few victories a season ago, but struck out each time. Now with a long-term contact extension, Hocevar has the full backing of Spire and team 77 in chasing excellence. In a similar vein to Ross Chastain’s rise, Hocevar may step on some toes on his route to the top.

• Josh Berry: A first-time Playoff contender in 2025, Josh Berry’s year was made by winning Las Vegas in March. Past that, Berry had few highlights and was eliminated after three straight last-place finishes. Year two of Berry and the Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 together will only mean more succinct communications. Much like his Penske teammates, Berry could pop off a surprise win on a variety of tracks. Expect the short track ace to be in the cut line fight down the stretch of this regular season.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credits to Sean Gardner/Getty Images