NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will End the Playoffs’ First Half in Kansas Victory Lane?
A Sunflower State Throwdown is the next leg of NASCAR’s championship marathon. The always-chaotic 400-mile jaunt around Kansas Speedway has seen title efforts rise and likewise crumble. The Heartland track has also seen its dominant teams shift drastically in very recent memory. Who can survive the impending mayhem and send their Playoff aspirations to the Round of 8? Here are a few who hope to stand out from the pack in the Hollywood Casino 400.
Kyle Larson
If anyone is to be pinned as the outright Kansas favorite, it’s Kyle Larson. Driver 5 won the most recent race here in May, his third win on the Midwest oval. Larson is the only repeat winner across the last 10 Kansas races, with his last outing here perhaps being his most impressive show. Four months ago saw the Hendrick driver lead an astounding 221 of 400 laps, setting a record for most circuits paced ever in a 400-mile intermediate race. From the pole, the 5 swept all three stages and left no stone unturned in a max-points afternoon. Larson is beaming at another opportunity to leave the field in his dust on one of his favorite tracks.
“Kansas is probably statistically one of our strongest tracks as a team,” Larson said. “We got a win there earlier this year, which is great, so we have a great setup for those mile-and-a-half tracks. It’s a great track, it wears the tires out, so I feel like you really have to manage your tires. For the most part, everyone runs the top. But I feel like at the end of the run you can kind of move around and find some grip. It’s probably our best track for Next Gen racing because of the options, we all really enjoy going to Kansas.”
“I would love to think we can [repeat at Kansas] but everyone’s gotten their stuff so much better throughout the year. You just never know when you go there. All we can do is try and execute like we did this spring. It’s been a long time since I’ve been that dominant, probably since then. Would love to go back there and do that again, but this series is so tough.
In the five years since joining Hendrick, an argument can be made that Kansas is Larson’s personal playground. Laps led in seven of the last nine races and his three wins are accompanied by two runner-ups and only one result worse than eighth. The rightful betting favorite hopes to tie Kansas Speedway’s all-time winningest driver mark with a fourth victory. Kansas Kyle hopes to reign supreme here again with a second Playoff win.
Kyle Larson’s No. 5 HendrickCars.Com Chevrolet on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Denny Hamlin
The man Larson is chasing to join as winningest in the Kansas record books is Denny Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver owns a series record four Kansas victories across 34 starts, most recently taming this track in 2023. If not for a drivetrain failure in May, Hamlin may be riding a Kansas top-five streak dating back to 2021. Following a head scratching off weekend, Hamlin hopes to follow the yellow brick road once again to the Kansas promised land.
“Look forward to Kansas, one of my favorite tracks,” Hamlin said. “Certainly one of my better mile-and-a-half racetracks. Won there plenty of times, so look forward to that.”
Hamlin will aim to bounce back from an uncharacteristically off 12th-place run in Loudon. This day was headlined by on-track contact and drama with teammate Ty Gibbs, that may cloud the coming week for Hamlin. Team 11 also enters Kansas down two crew members, after losing a tire at Bristol. Hamlin hopes to put all of this noise behind him, claim his 60th career win and a record fifth Kansas checkered flag.
Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota Camry on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Ross Chastain
To be the top dog in Kansas, 36 drivers will have to find a way to beat the reigning Hollywood Casino 400 winner, Ross Chastain. The Trackhouse Racing No. 1 Chevrolet was a Playoff-upsetting winner here a year ago, taking this victory as a non-contender. That day saw The Melon Man lead 52 laps en route to smashing a watermelon. Now returning to the plains in the title hunt once again, Chastain has high hopes for a Kansas repeat performance.
“I wouldn’t say there’s any more tension,” Chastain said. “Everyone is professional and you can’t get into the Playoffs and all of the sudden change everything you’ve been doing. Everyone goes in each day putting their best effort into the task at hand. You got into the Playoffs because you did well. So I wouldn’t say the attitudes or anything change just because we’re in the Playoffs.”
“I feel our intermediate program is the strongest for the No. 1 car out of the different types of tracks. I think if we can replicate how we ran at Kansas last year and Charlotte this year, that we’ll have a strong shot to win or definitely run inside the top-five. We haven’t been able to do that at all of the mile-and-a-half tracks this year though. The little bit of a question mark going into Kansas is if we can replicate those races.”
Intermediates like Kansas were once the most common stop on the NASCAR schedule. Sunday however marks the first mile-and-a-half race since May, when Chastain won at Charlotte. Between this recent intermediate success and Kansas confidence, a lot is looking up for the 1 this weekend. A banner Sunday is needed for this team, entering Playoff race five below the cut line by 12 points.
Ross Chastain’s No. 1 Busch Light Chevrolet on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Tyler Reddick
In the not-so-distant past, 23XI Racing and Toyota were the talk of the town at Kansas. They held a four-race win streak across four different drivers, with their most recent winner being Tyler Reddick. In this race two years ago, the No. 45 Toyota took command in overtime and set sail for victory lane. The three races since, however, have been far more trying times for Reddick in his hopes of a Kansas repeat. Reddick’s best result since his breakthrough win has been 17th. All of 23XI Racing knows they have room to improve to conquer their best track once again.
“You know, you look years ago, that was a place we’re really good at,” Reddick said. We have struggled for sure there the last couple years. So, we got a lot of questions we got to answer, that’s for sure. I don’t think anybody wants to run this bad. I certainly don’t. And I believe that my team doesn’t either. So we’ve just got to figure this out.”
“I think it’s very possible that leaving Kansas, one of us will be [in a must-win scenario]. Meaning, you know, for one to have a good day and close the gap, the other can’t have as good of a day. I don’t know. I mean, I feel like we typically perform pretty equally well, right? But man, it’s a it’s a tough hole. You know, we were able to eliminate a 20 point gap pretty easily in the Round of 16. In the Round of 12, it gets harder. Yeah. And I don’t know.”
Kansas may be a do-or-die weekend for Reddick especially, falling more than 20 points below the cut after a dismal Loudon result. Team 45 is no stranger to upsetting at this track, which plays perfectly into Reddick’s high, wide, and handsome driving style. Reddick has some of the shortest betting odds for Kansas, but a breakout first win of 2025 coming this weekend would be a bit of an upset.
Tyler Reddick’s No. 45 Pinnacle Toyota Camry on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Christopher Bell
Out of all drivers winless at Kansas Speedway, none have been closer to multiple wins than Christopher Bell. The No. 20 Toyota was runner-up to Kyle Larson in May, good enough for a fourth-straight top-10 here. Bell’s last seven Kansas trips have all seen him out front, including four poles in this span. After getting out of the gates slow to start the Round of 12, Bell hopes for greener pastures ahead in Kansas.
“I feel good about our performance at the next two,” Bell said. “But with that being said, I felt good about our performance coming into [Loudon] and it didn’t turn out. So yeah, Kansas is very similar to what we had at Darlington. Hopefully we do good. I think we can.”
Zero laps led at Loudon was a bit of a surprise for Bell, falling short of repeating his Bristol triumph by finishing sixth. Driver 20 is now fourth in points on the back of three-straight top-10s, 29 points clear of the cut line. That much of a cushion cane be a false positive, however, especially with past Kansas winners below Bell in points. Expect Bell to perhaps be best in class among the Toyotas once again at Kansas, and be battling for a career-best fifth win of 2025.
Christopher Bell’s No. 20 Rheem Toyota Camry on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing’s Kansas stranglehold was kicked off by Kurt Busch, and continued with Bubba Wallace in 2022. This race three years ago marked Wallace’s second Cup triumph, taking the checkers as a Playoff-upsetting winner. Until Indianapolis in July, that September day in the Sunflower State was Wallace’s most recent win. Now as part of the 12-man title fight, Wallace is optimistic that his team can find their right groove again.
“A little bit, but the stats there the last few starts for us haven’t been good,” Wallace said. We really needed to, which I said this after our last Kansas race, we really need to dig deep and find our mojo. Get our mojo back, from when we were dominant there. And it’s not as easy as snapping your fingers. We’ve been working really hard since that last race. So, excited to see the efforts going into this weekend.”
A late crash in May derailed Wallace’s chances of any decent Kansas result; he’s only been in the top-10 here once since his win. Company-wide lackluster performance in Loudon pits Wallace in the Playoff basement, 27 points below advancing. Wallace will likely have to swing for the fences and score major points if not win one of the next two races. Given the many unknowns of the Charlotte Roval, Wallace’s entire season may hinge on an ability to perform in the clutch at Kansas.
Bubba Wallace’s No. 23 U.S. Air Force Toyota Camry on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday, August 31. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
It’s fitting the Hollywood Casino sponsors this weekend’s race, with many high-risk gambles at teams’ disposal. Kansas Speedway has proven time and again to be ruthless to all competitors—favorite or underdog alike. The Sunflower State will be taken over by high stakes Playoff drama Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. The Hollywood Casino 400 will likewise see one daring gamble pay off and many others fall flat.
Written by Peter Stratta
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