NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Win the Duel in the Desert at Phoenix Raceway?
For the first time in seven years, Phoenix Raceway will not be the site of the Cup Series Championship race. Now the seventh stop for the 2026 Chase, the desert diamond may have a trick or two up its sleeve. The one-mile oval has tendencies and characteristics like nowhere else on the NASCAR circuit. Now hosting its earliest fall race since 2001, Phoenix could throw Chase contenders for a loop. Here are a few drivers who hope to stand tall among the cacti and the soaring peaks after Sunday’s Freeway Insurance 500.
Ryan Blaney
Few have taken to Phoenix Raceway as well in the Next Gen era as Ryan Blaney. Nine races on the desert mile since 2022 have seen the No. 12 earn a very impressive eight top-fives. This streak includes the last two wins, 314 laps led, and a 5.2 average finish. On top of his pair of Phoenix trophies, Blaney also owns four runner-ups here. If not for an engine failure in last year’s spring race, the 12’s otherworldly Phoenix stat line could be even greater.
“Myself and I think this whole group, they go into every weekend thinking we can win, just having confidence in yourself,” Blaney said. “And this group has been awesome to work with. I love my guys. But Phoenix has been good to us in the past. I don’t know what’s going to happen at Talladega. No one does. But then we’ve got Martinsville and Miami. The best thing we can do is one race at a time. Just try to go do our job the best that we can. And hopefully if we can do that we can find victory lane a couple more times.”
“[Championship Weekend] is kind of what it is and what it had been at Phoenix since 2020. It’ll be a bit of a change, but that’s fine. It’s still the same racetrack, just to look a little bit different through the weekend.”
Blaney heads to one of his best and most consistent racetracks needing to make up serious championship ground. The No. 12 is ranked fifth in the standings, 85 points behind the leader. Entering Phoenix this weekend looking for a desert hat trick, Blaney is the oddsmaker’s favorite for this unprecedented feat. Only Jimmie Johnson (2007-2008) and Kevin Harvick (2013-2015) have earned a perfect Phoenix trio before. Blaney hopes to join this very elite list and retain his title as current Cactus King.
Ryan Blaney’s No. 12 Discount Tire Ford Mustang on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Denny Hamlin
Returning to the site of his gut-wrenching championship loss last fall, Denny Hamlin eyes retribution. The two-time Phoenix Raceway winner led over 200 laps here just 12 months ago. This infamously led to a late four-tire pit road call, relegating the No. 11 to sixth at the finish. Dating back to 2020’s season finale, Hamlin’s been 11th or better in all but two of 12 trips to Phoenix. Now trailing Kyle Larson’s championship lead by 49 points, Hamlin knows he needs a big day ahead in Arizona.
“I think we’ll be somewhere in the top five obviously,” Hamlin said. “But yeah, I think we’re going to see kind of where the 5 stacks up. You know, Phoenix has not been crazy strong for them, right? Even in their championship years, when they’ve won the championship there, they’ve just not been very strong, but they’ve they’ve found a way, right? And so what does that continue or are they just so hot that it just doesn’t matter and they’re going to go out there and dominate this race? Who knows? That would be the most surprising outcome of any scenario we can throw out for this weekend. I suspect the Penske cars are going to be on kill.”
“I’m pretty confident. But you know, we weren’t super strong there in the spring. We were good, just not great. Just got to dig into what we got to do to be a little bit faster. The 20 car was very strong. So, you know that’s going to be certainly a contender and someone that’s always up front at that racetrack.”
“We changed the horsepower package over the offseason. So it did change straightaway speeds, corner speeds, all that did change over from year to year. So, we got to get that feel back in the racecar. And so that’s what the the task will be this week is to give me that fall balance back.”
“We’ve just got to execute better, be a little faster, all of the above. But ultimately we’re giving it all we’ve got right now.”
Hamlin has yet to see a clean race through six weeks in The Chase. Despite so many setbacks, team 11 is still ranked second in points. Knowing that Phoenix can be a chink in Larson’s armor, a major points day must be ahead for the 11. On tracks comparable to Phoenix, Hamlin has a sixth-place average finish so far in 2026. Hamlin has shown flat-out dominance in very recent history at Phoenix. However, execution from this team top-down is still a big question mark. Through an entire practice and qualifying session, Hamlin’s feel should be honed in for another stellar desert drive.
Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 Progressive Insurance Toyota Camry on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Kyle Larson
Despite winning two Cup championships here, Kyle Larson still calls Phoenix Raceway one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Driver No. 5 also leads all in the Cup Series with a 10th-place average finish here, owning 16 top-10s in 24 starts. Third-place last fall at Phoenix was good enough for Larson to clinch title number two. Calling nearby Scottsdale a second home, Larson now hopes to inch closer to back-to-back titles in The Valley of the Sun.
“Consistency wasn’t something we had throughout the regular season,” Larson said. “But we’ve been really consistent during The Chase, and I’m proud of everyone’s effort. I think our racecars have gotten a little better, and the pit crew has been solid and consistent all year. Having a slightly faster racecar has allowed me to be a bit calmer behind the wheel, which helps with consistency. Cliff [Daniels] and the engineers have also done a really good job with strategy and calling races. The combination of all those factors has been good and has translated into results.”
“I’m sure it translates some, but we were good at Gateway last year and then really bad at Phoenix again still. So, it’s a different track. Like yes, a lot of the same people run good at Gateway and Phoenix. But I just didn’t feel like we were one of those teams last year, but we’ll see. I mean, we still have time to like try and work on our setup and try and get it better when we get there next week.”
His sixth-place run at Charlotte last week was Larson’s worst finish so far in The Chase, still boasting a 2.8-average finish. Never worse than fourth in the last four Phoenix races, Larson is more than on track to continue this impressive streak. Despite being blunt on his recent Phoenix track record, it would not be shocking to see the Gateway winner up front here again.
Kyle Larson’s No. 5 HendrickCars.Com Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Joey Logano
Three-time Cup champion Joey Logano also owns four Phoenix trophies, winning his last two Cups right here in the fall race. Ford No. 22 has at least 70 laps led in three of the last four trips here. However, that same span has only ended with two top-fives for the 22. Logano was out front for much of the race here in March, before two late spins.
Coming off a ninth-place run in Charlotte, Logano is in a self-described must-win mode for Phoenix. Team 22 find themselves sixth in The Chase standings, 92 points back of the lead. If Logano wants any chance at a fourth Bill France Cup in 2026, a mega points day needs to come from Phoenix. The next three tracks on the schedule line up great for Team Penske. The crafty veteran ace definitely still has an outside shot for this championship.
Joey Logano’s No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Mosaic Ford Mustang on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Christopher Bell
Few are as deft and versatile around Phoenix Raceway as Christopher Bell, who looks to reassert himself in championship talks. Losing Charlotte by a nose, Bell now shifts focus to Phoenix where he’s a co-favorite. Toyota No. 20 has two wins, four top-fives, and 474 laps led in the last five Phoenix races alone. Visibly frustrated after narrowly being defeated at Charlotte, Bell had high hopes for Phoenix and the next few tracks ahead.
“I mean, we should be really good at the next couple of races,” Bell said. “Yeah, hopefully we can keep bringing these fast racecars and see what happens.”
Falling only two points behind teammate Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell may just be turning a corner at the right time. Charlotte’s runner-up result was his fourth top-six finish in The Chase, and put him on the championship precipice. Bell should be a strong threat against the Penske cars for Sunday’s win. Team 20 will try to regain title hunt control for Toyota.
Christopher Bell’s No. 20 DeWalt/United Land Services Toyota Camry on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Chase Briscoe
Now fourth in points after back-to-back wins, can Chase Briscoe parlay this hot hand into more success at Phoenix? The Joe Gibbs Racing driver earned his maiden Cup win here four years ago with Stewart-Haas Racing. Ever since then however, the Hoosier has been very hit or miss in the desert. Only mustering a high of 18th-place over the last four Phoenix races, Briscoe eyes being much higher this weekend.
“I mean, look, I feel great about all the tracks we’re going to,” Briscoe said. “Phoenix is where I’ve been able to at least win my first Cup race, so I feel confident going there. Even just in the 19 car, stats-wise, I would say we have been one of the worst cars — if you just look on paper at the finish. But we have passed so many cars and went from the back to the front I don’t know how many times. I think we’ve blown five tires in two races there. So the end result doesn’t always show great, but we’ve been really fast there.”
Chase Briscoe’s No. 19 Free Bird Toyota Camry on the grid at Charlotte Motor Speedway before winning the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJ Sports
Phoenix Raceway may take on an entirely new look this weekend, no longer as the do-or-die title finale spot. 312 laps around the desert mile leaves plenty of chance for season-defining wins or blunders on and off-track. The Freeway Insurance 500 will set drivers up for the home stretch of The Chase. Only three races are left after Phoenix. The Arizona green flag will fly Sunday at 3 p.m,. ET on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Whoever wins the desert duel could carry serious momentum into the final three weeks of the 2026 season.
Written by Peter Stratta
Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X
Be sure to follow the writer on Twitter/X
Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
