Who Will be Dealt the Right Hand in Las Vegas?

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NASCAR

Stratta’s Six: Who Can Continue a Chase Heater in Las Vegas?

The Chase rolls onto its halfway point at a desert gem – Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The second of three-straight intermediate ovals will see the Cup Series’ best duke it out for a very high-stakes win. Can a daring gamble elevate one driver to the championship doorstep? The South Point 400 will be won by a team that can adapt on the fly and be willing to put it all on the table. Here are a few who hope to leave Las Vegas with a trophy in hand and carry Chase momentum into the final stretch.

Kyle Larson

A week after a commanding performance at Kansas, Kyle Larson eyes a repeat run at Las Vegas. The points leader has tamed Las Vegas three times before, and has only been worse than 10th once in the last nine races here. Larson will be racing to remember an icon this weekend, running a Kyle Busch tribute scheme on the No. 5. Busch and Larson were heated rivals on Sundays but also close friends off track. The current No. 5 Hendrick driver is excited to honor ‘Rowdy’ at his home track.

Bringing a piece of Kyle Busch’s legacy back to the track. pic.twitter.com/7cI1tfxSVM

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) September 30, 2026

“I’m super excited to get to honor Kyle Busch this weekend at Las Vegas with a scheme that he ran at Hendrick Motorsports,” Larson said. “It’s a beautiful paint scheme, too. Hopefully, we can have a good day. Vegas has been a good track for us in the past, and after the run we had at Kansas, we’ve been building our intermediate program to be better and better. Hopefully, we can go there, execute another good weekend, qualify well and score a lot of points.”

Entering Vegas atop the Cup Series championship by 26 points, the wind is at Larson’s back for another strong Sunday. Kansas saw him earn max points by leading 235 circuits, sweeping stages, and taking the fastest lap. The No. 5 has yet to finish worse than fifth in The Chase. This electric run shows no signs of slowing down in Sin City. ‘Young Money’ is the betting favorite for Las Vegas, and looks to keep riding his hot hand.

Denny Hamlin

The first two wheels on a Las Vegas slot machine have both stopped on number 11. Can number three also end with the same man in victory lane? If anyone can stop Larson’s reign of terror march, it’s Denny Hamlin’s quest for a Las Vegas three-peat. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran took his long-awaited 60th career Cup victory in this race a year ago, and doubled up with another dominant run here in March. Those mark two of Hamlin’s three trips to Las Vegas victory lane, all coming in his last 10 starts.

While 2025’s Playoff win carried great sentimental value, March’s Las Vegas race could have been a bigger precursor. That day saw Hamlin start second, take the lead on lap three, and hardly look back from that point onward. Just like Larson at Kansas last week, Hamlin put up a monster day leading 134 laps. Needing a breakout run to reassert championship pedigree, Las Vegas could give Hamlin more victory spoils.

Joey Logano

After a self-described “below-average day” at Kansas, Joey Logano looks to regain lost ground at one of his best tracks. Four Las Vegas victories for driver No. 22 ties Jimmie Johnson for most all-time. Each of Logano’s last two successful Las Vegas trips eventually led him to a Cup title, winning this race in 2022 and 2024. Logano is actually the only South Point 400 winner ever to then take the Cup, a feat he’s done twice. Knowing his strong history here, Logano looks forward to another banner weekend ahead in the desert.

“Vegas has been a great track for us, especially the fall race,” Logano said. “It’s been kind of what’s propelled us into the championship the last few times we’ve won it. So hopefully, that’s something that continues. It’s been a good track for Team Penske in general. Yeah, we know the mile-and-a-half tracks have been a little tough, but that’s probably been our best one. So, I feel pretty optimistic.”

“I think the potential is there when you look at what the 2 was able to do. And the 12’s last run was really strong too, so the potential in the company is there. It wasn’t one of our stronger races. We were an eighth-place car give or take from there a couple of spots. That’s about what we had in it, so we kind of scored those stage points. I think we finished eighth and fifth in the stages and then we had the tire come apart there at the end and we lost a bunch of spots. It was just an average to below average kind of day, nothing too much to be excited about. But at the same time, a little bit more optimistic about our mile-and-a-half stuff, seeing that as a company there’s potential there.”

Closing to within 16 points of the championship lead after Bristol, a cut tire late at Kansas saw Logano bleed a few positions. Now heading to Las Vegas 67 points back, a mega weekend needs to come from the 22 team. Logano’s Las Vegas luck has been on prime display before under peak Playoff pressure. Perhaps similar circumstances can end with the 22 rolling the dice and taking the checkers here again.

Christopher Bell

If anyone is due a turn to land in Las Vegas victory lane, it’s Christopher Bell. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has struck out here in 13 tries, but has been runner-up twice. The No. 20 has nearly 300 laps led here and three top-fives in the last four races. Trying to regain Chase momentum after his Darlington win, Bell has to be gleaming with an opportunity ahead at one of his best tracks. The roulette ball should land on No. 20 eventually. Will Sunday be Bell’s long-awaited time basking in the Nevada sun?

“I felt like Vegas has owed me one for a very long time,” Bell said over a year ago. “I go back to the Truck Series, and I never won at Vegas. The Xfinity Series, I’ve never won at Vegas. The Cup Series, I have never won at Vegas. But I would be curious to see the stats. I feel like I’ve led more laps at Vegas than I have any other track without any wins.”

Bell is ranked third in The Chase standings ahead of Las Vegas, 50 points off the top spot. Earning two top-10s in the three races since his Darlington triumph, Bell is still a factor in The Chase. Should the 20’s regular contending pace return, Bell could be facing down a maiden win at Las Vegas.

William Byron

Largely an afterthought so far in this year’s Chase has been William Byron and the Hendrick No. 24. Starting out as the 13th seed and suffering a Darlington DNF, the still-winless team has been buried in points. Since that engine failure, however, Byron has quietly strung together three-straight top-10s. Now focused on one of his most consistent tracks at Las Vegas, Byron beams for a chance at a breakout run and possible first win of 2026.

“Kansas was okay,” Byron said. “We struggled to find that last little bit for handling. And with no practice again, it took most of the race to try things. It was a solid day, but we need to do more if we really want to make a jump up in points. We have two more mile-and-a-half tracks coming up that we’re good at, so this is our chance.”

Las Vegas has been very kind to Byron in recent history. The 2023 spring winner here led nearly 200 laps that day alone, and has been a constant fixture here up front ever since. Byron’s last six las Vegas starts have seen five top-10s, with the only outlier being last fall. That race saw the No. 24 leading when he was taken out in a pit entry gone wrong by a lapped car. Byron backed up that strong run with a third-place effort here earlier this year. That marked one of several intermediate breakout runs in 2026 for the 24. While Byron has been a bad luck magnet for much of the season, perhaps his favor could change this week at Las Vegas.

Ryan Blaney

Speaking of bad luck, Ryan Blaney is due for a change of fortunes in Las Vegas. The Team Penske driver has not won here in 20 starts, with a best finish of third. Despite a strong top-five Kansas outing, Blaney still lost ground to Larson’s championship lead. Now 91 points back, Blaney is nearing the danger zone for keeping his title hopes alive.

Blaney must find a way to narrow this large points deficit over 400 miles on Sunday. Sub 30th-place results in three of the last four Las Vegas races aren’t high cause for optimism either in the 12 camp. If another poor result comes this weekend, then Blaney’s postseason bid may come up dry. Barring a career-best run at Las Vegas, the 12’s Chase chances may be on a lifeline.

The South Point 400 has been a catalyst in many recent championship-winning and losing efforts. Las Vegas will go green as The Chase’s halfway mark Sunday at 5:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The mile-and-a-half oval has been equally rich and catastrophic to Chase contenders alike, leaving some teams on cloud nine and others in the dumps. One contender will be celebrating big, with 15 others asking what could have been after 400 tough miles in the desert.

Written by Peter Stratta

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