NASCAR
2025 Xfinity Series Playoff Preview: Can an Underdog Upset the Championship 4?
As the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs begin Friday at Bristol, the spotlight shines brightest on the top contenders. However, the battle among the bottom six drivers in the standings comes with its own drama and intrigue. A tightly packed field will only see eight move on past this opening round. Drivers including: Nick Sanchez, Taylor Gray, Carson Kvapil, Sheldon Creed, Harrison Burton, and Austin Hill all face an uphill but manageable climb to keep their championship hopes alive. Each of them bring a unique perspective along with a mix of experience, momentum, and hunger to prove themselves against the series’ elite. Each of the bottom six drivers face many challenges and opportunities awaiting these underdogs. They all will fight to defy the odds and make a deep Playoff run.
Nick Sanchez – 2,006 points
One of four rookies in the Xfinity Series Playoffs, Nick Sanchez locked in his spot by winning Atlanta in June. Since then, the Big Machine Racing No. 48 Chevrolet has seen three more top-fives. As one of many RCR-aligned Chevrolet teams racing for this title, Sanchez has high hopes for the upcoming run.
“I don’t feel like I have [a playing with house money] vibe,” Sanchez said. “As a race team and as a racecar driver, I feel like I have a shot at actually making it to Phoenix, even though it might surprise some. So for me, I want to try to execute these next seven races, like the best of my career and really put my best foot forward. And I feel like we have the potential going forward, and there’s a lot of, really good racetracks for us.”
“You know, what Connor [Zilisch] is doing is insane and rightfully so, he deserves the praise he’s getting. But I feel like there’s a world where we could be the third fastest racecar in the Playoffs behind the 7 and the 88. In Stage 1 at Gateway, I know it’s just one race, that’s where we were. And I feel like we’ve qualified very well. We’ve had raw pace, and that’s something that’s very hard to get. I feel like we have more a pace than our technical teammates in the 2 and the 21. So in my eyes, we need to focus on execution and finishing races where we should. I feel like with doing that, we’re in a good position. So I think we need to focus on those items that I just mentioned. And the rest will take care of itself.”
Sanchez enters his maiden Playoff run as the seventh seed. Looking closer to the points though, the 48 is only seven markers back from fourth in the standings. In short the second tier of drivers among the Playoff grid is ultra tight, leaving little room for error from anyone. On the flip side, a breakout run is very much possible from Sanchez or any of these teams. It will be fun to see who flourishes in this opportunity and battles for a Championship 4 berth.
Taylor Gray – 2,005 points
Another Xfinity Series rookie-turned-contender, Taylor Gray has put up a very respectable first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. The No. 54 Toyota Supra has been within eyesight of multiple victories this season, only to come up short each time. Performance has been shown by this team, a checkered flag or two may just be in their immediate future.
“I think just bringing the the speed that that we know we’re capable of bringing to the track every week is is what we’re focused on,” Gray said. “And executing these races and and finishing them out. You know, we’ve really been in contention to win four or five races this year and we really should have won four five races this year and just haven’t executed and closed the deal. So big emphasis, talk to the guys and my team and Jason (Ratcliffe, crew chief) on Sunday after Gateway. And you know, our team word is execute. And so we’re really emphasizing that throughout the Playoffs.”
“I think knowing how the process works and just staying at that level feel and keeping your head straight throughout the Playoffs is super important. There’s a lot of ups and downs and things can happen. But, yeah I mean, last year’s (Truck Series) Playoffs had a really good opportunity to go to the final four at Martinsville and it didn’t happen.”
Speaking of Martinsville last fall, that weekend this time around may just be a double dose of retribution for Gray. The 54 led on the last lap there in March, before getting spun in the final corner. If the rookie can survive past the opening round’s gauntlet, a maiden NASCAR win could fall into his favor on the short track. Gray’s seen a pair of runner-up results this year, and is eyeing one step higher over the next seven weeks.
Carson Kvapil – 2,005 points
The short track ace who turned heads last year in his NASCAR debut, Carson Kvapil now races for a championship. The lone JR Motorsports driver to not find victory lane yet in 2025, the 1 has been painfully close. 12 top-10s through 26 weeks is one of the best records for anyone in Xfinity. The second generation star scratches his head on why they have yet to put all the pieces together to win.
“I’m not really sure, honestly,” Kvapil said. “I feel like last year, the part-time schedule, we had some really good races and it was kind of, I guess not easy. But it wasn’t unexpected for us to go run top-10 or top-five. And it was just kind of just how it was. And this year has been a little bit of a step behind. It seems like, just not really having the the speed that I feel like we had last year. But I think it just all comes down to having the experience of me being a first time full-time guy and my crew chief. He’s been around it forever, but it’s his first full-time year being a crew chief as well. So I think we’re all just trying to kind of get used to each other and build each other up and try to figure it all out as a team.”
“Honestly, I’d probably grade our season out of 10 maybe a seven. I mean, it’s been good, right? And we’ve had strong runs. We’ve finished second a few times. We’ve had some really respectable races, and we run good on road courses where we kind of didn’t expect it. At the same time, we kind of haven’t just had the consistent speed week in and week out that I feel like we should have. I think locking in on points, obviously that’s not the way I wanted to be in. But at the same time it just kind of goes to show that we’ve had a really consistent season. We haven’t made any huge mistakes or tried to minimize them the best we can and just been super consistent and knocking out some good runs.”
JR Motorsports is in the midst of their best season yet, with 16 wins and counting. Kvapil’s time to add onto this list is surely coming soon, with a few of his best tracks up ahead. The late model star was runner-up at Bristol in April, and almost won at Martinsville last season. Between these two bullrings, do not be surprised to see JRM’s fabulous foursome all become winners with a Kvapil triumph.
Sheldon Creed – 2,003 points
What more needs to happen to get Sheldon Creed in Xfinity Series victory lane? Now in his fourth full-time season with a third different team, the Haas 00 has seen a very up and down year. 12 top-10s are almost mirrored by seven DNFs, putting this Ford team as the tenth seed. Announced last week, Haas Factory Team will undergo an offseason manufacturer change as well. Despite this mammoth change, Creed says that Ford remains committed to sending them out on top as champions in 2024.
“I think our relationship with Ford is as good as it’s been all year,” Creed said. “Sim time, I think we’re getting more of it, and the goal is still the same for Haas Factory Team and Ford. We have three cars in the final 12 Playoffs, so the goal is to get at least one of them to the final four, if not all three, so, yeah, I don’t think anything changes.”
“I think first [goal] is to get that win finally. It’s been a challenging three-and-a-half years. We’ve been close numerous times, but haven’t been as close lately. I think I’d be lying to myself if I said we were right on the edge lately, but I think the first goal is to win. The second goal is just to be able to score as many points as possible and get ourselves to the Round of 8, and then refocus from there on where we think our strengths are, whether that be in Vegas, Talladega or Martinsville, and if we can win there, then focus goes to Phoenix on how are we gonna win there.”
“Obviously, Xfinity has been tough for myself for whatever reason. It helped in trucks when I was at GMS that our trucks were really fast and I gelled really well with my crew chief, Jeff Stankiewicz. We just clicked really well, but I don’t know. Our trucks were just fast and it was easy to do what I wanted, and that was really comfortable. I could be aggressive and I could just be really creative in the truck, where Xfinity it’s harder. The drivers are better. There’s more better drivers. The field is just thicker. Everything matters a little bit more, like pit stops and pit road and everything has to go well. The car falls off through a run one to two seconds more than a truck. So I’ve obviously had good Xfinity cars over the years and had opportunities to win and feel comfortable with where I’m at. I’m blessed to have a second year here at Haas Factory and we’re just gonna keep building on our notebook. I would love to have a season like Connor’s had.”
Creed’s 2025 season so far has been highlighted by five top-fives, including a Martinsville runner-up result. All of Haas Factory Team appears to be at a turning point as the Playoffs arrive, with Sam Mayer also elevating his recent performance. Creed has the chance to become the ultimate postseason Cinderella story and possibly upset a favorite in Phoenix.
Harrison Burton – 2,002 points
Amidst his first season back in Xfinity, Harrison Burton has delivered AM Racing their maiden Playoff appearance. The veteran and the underdog team have proven to be a very potent combination. Their tenure together has yielded two top-fives and nine top-10s. Team 25 does have a vast resources deficit to other postseason competitors. Burton does still believe his experience from last year’s Cup Series Playoffs will be a big advantage.
“I think just in general having experience in the Cup Series and in the Playoffs in the Cup Series is huge,” Burton said. “You kind of understand the level of competitiveness that you have to bring and the level of detail that you have to bring to succeed. Our Playoffs last year was frustrating. We had a mechanical failure. We had a tire blown and we got crashed on the last lap. So three things that you don’t really have on your Bingo card to take you out that took us out. You learn from that and grow from that in the best way possible. That is just controlling what you can control and that’s all we can really do.”
“[The Playoffs are] a really cool accomplishment for our whole group. It’s not just me. There are a lot of people that have put a lot of effort into making this racecar go the way it has. That’s been really, really rewarding. I think, obviously, the wins haven’t come yet. I feel like we’re getting closer, and that’s kind of the next step we have to take. That’s probably the hardest step, but we’re working really, really hard and it’s been rewarding. I think the funny thing is your goals change as you run better. The first few races it was literally we were worried about making the race at Daytona, at COTA. We weren’t locked in because our points weren’t enough from last year. So to build it to being in the Playoffs and running well and performing well has been very rewarding.”
“I really didn’t know what to expect. A new race team, new people. For me completely everything was brand new, changing series, everything. So I didn’t have this big, lofty expectation. I just knew that we had to take it one race at a time and put our energy into the next weekend and then the big things come after that. So as we started running better, as the races went by and we’re like, ‘OK, we can compete. We can do this.’ Then the goal for the next week changes. It’s like, ‘OK, let’s go run better next week and better next week and try to build on this.’ We really have taken it one week at a time until probably three or four weeks ago when things on the Playoff line were pretty tight. Then we started really thinking about that side of things, but you just have to perform one weekend at a time and the big goals will come after that.”
“[In Cup] I learned a ton. I learned a ton about myself. Obviously, that didn’t go as I wanted it to. I wanted to cement myself, earn a place there for a long term and win races consistently. A lot of those things didn’t happen, but on the bright side of things that race win was such an important lesson to me. Not about the win or celebrating or anything like that. It was an important lesson to me in not quitting. I’ve never been a quitter. I’ve never been someone that throws the towel in. But whenever you’re fired you have to go to your race team, tell them you’re fired, have that conversation, have to rebuild ourselves after that. Have everyone on that team not really know what was going on next year, and just go to the races and keep swinging and then all of a sudden you find yourself in victory lane. It’s such a cool lesson and that can carry to any job, any situation, anything I do for the rest of my life. I can carry that mentality and it’ll serve me well.”
Burton and the No. 25 team are admittedly fighting uphill to make the top eight. Their task ahead will not be easy, trying to upend one of the far more established and well-funded teams. Burton’s current gap to the cut line is only three points though. Burton must see three near-perfect races ahead, and find a way to earn stage points if he is to advance. Burton is last among Playoff cars in stage points earned this season, however. In short, the 25 will be searching for a miracle run over the next three weeks.
Austin Hill – 2,000 points
The biggest asterisk in this year’s Xfinity Series Playoffs is Austin Hill being seeded 12th. Three times a winner this season, Hill lost 21 Playoff points as a result of being suspended after Indianapolis. Hill would have likely been the third seed if not for this momentary lapse of judgement. Now having to fight forward from the bottom, Hill claims this reality won’t change much for him on track.
“Not for me, I’m sure that the 21 team’s probably looking at it that way,” Hill said. “For me, every Playoff that I’ve been in, especially last year, my number one focuses to try to win the race. If I can’t win the race, if we don’t have a car capable of doing that, then try to finish second. If I can’t finish second, third, fourth, so on. So yeah, I don’t see it as something that I’m going to look at anything different in the Playoffs. If we get to that last round, before the next round starts, if we get to that last race, there might be one of those things where I glance at it just to see where I’m at in relation to the rest of the guys. But, yeah, I’ve always just been someone that, when the Playoffs start, I try not to view it a whole lot different. I do think the intensity level and all kind of spikes up. But yeah, starting however many points back that I am right now, I don’t think we’re at a huge deficit to start the round. So we just got to go out there and do our job.”
Even with the missed race, Hill remained consistent enough to end the regular season fifth in points. Two of his last four races also saw top-fives. This proved that the RCR No. 21 is still very much in contention to win. Hill should be able to outrace a few guys ahead of him on the grid. If that happens, the Round of 8 has arguably his three best tracks ahead. Between Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville, Hill owns recent wins at all of these tracks. The 21 also found victories earlier this year at two of the Round of 8 venues. Put bluntly, Hill is very much an elite threat for the Championship 4. Having to reset at zero points has seemingly not phased this veteran driver one bit. A determined and hungry Austin Hill may be a danger for the competition these next few weeks.
These bottom six Xfinity drivers all find themselves standing on the narrow edge of opportunity and elimination. All of them start out so close among each other in the standings. Stage points and a possible win likewise represent their postseason lifeline. The Playoffs for these underdogs will be defined by harnessing consistency, capitalizing on chaos, and outmaneuvering rivals to keep championship dreams alive. Their respective fights through the Round of 12 will equally test resilience and may redefine legacies. This ensuing high-stakes battle will see every lap count and possibly change the course of an entire season.
Written by Peter Stratta
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