NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Perfectly Aim for Texas Victory Lane?
The 2026 campaign rolls on for the NASCAR Cup Series to one of the most chaotic tracks in recent history. Texas Motor Speedway is on deck for 38 drivers to battle over 400 miles on Sunday. The ever-tricky repaved and reconfigured surface north of Fort Worth has led to some of the craziest races in the Next Gen Era. Unknowns heading into the Würth 400 are Texas-sized, with many teams in desperate need of a season-defining win. Here are a few contenders who hope to lasso up a trophy from this 400-mile rodeo.
Kyle Larson
Despite laps led in all four Next Gen Texas races, Kyle Larson’s only finished as high as fourth. The 2021 Texas winner (and All-Star Race champion) looks to take home another cowboy hat this weekend. Still riding a nearly year-long winless streak, Texas is a prime opportunity for the vintage 5 team to return.
“I think getting your car to handle is key,” Larson said. “Because it’s hard to make it work well on both ends of the racetrack. But if you can get through turns one and two with speed, then you have just enough comfort to carry that speed through three and four, you can have a good day.”
While winless in his last four Texas starts, nobody’s led more laps here in that span than Larson. Across races already this season at similar tracks Las Vegas and Kansas, the 5 has spent over 85% of laps ran inside the top five. In short, Larson should be expected to have another banner Sunday ahead as a heavy winning threat.
Kyle Larson’s No. 5 HendrickCars.Com Chevrolet Camaro at Bristol Motor Speedway before the Food City 500 on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Denny Hamlin
The oddsmakers’ favorite entering Texas is three-time winner Denny Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota was victorious here in a 2010 season sweep and most recently in 2019. Similar to Larson, Hamlin’s been lights out fast here but has yet to win in the Next Gen Car. Across 35 career Texas starts, Hamlin owns 16 top-10s, 330 laps led, and a top-11 starting spot in 12-straight races.
Las Vegas in March was won by Hamlin, and Kansas saw the 11 be best in show as well before overtime shenanigans. Hamlin’s intermediate pace and execution have been series-best dating back to last season. He should absolutely have a shot at a Texas four-peat if team 11 rises to their full potential.
Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 National Debt Relief Toyota Camry at Bristol Motor Speedway before the Food City 500 on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Ryan Blaney
The last Texas All-Star Race winner, Ryan Blaney still chases a first points-paying Texas victory. Team Penske’s No. 12 Ford has been a regular contender here for years, with top-10s in nine of the last 12 races.
“I feel like you see a little bit more [attrition] at Texas just because it’s narrow,” Blaney said. “Everyone is fighting for a couple of lanes through one and two, so you get guys making the bold moves to get in the hole into one or something and then three and four, if you’re trying to hustle it on the top, we’re running so low that there’s that big bump in the middle of three and four, so guys kind of bust their butts over it pretty easy. I think everyone knows that it’s kind of a track position place. It’s hard to move forward when it’s narrower like that, so everyone knows that restarts are a huge key and when you have restarts that are a huge key at a narrower place, you’re gonna get guys fighting for position and contact. We’ll see if the trend continues.”
Blaney was shut out of top-10s in both prior intermediates this year, with an average finish of 20th. Now at third in points, Blaney will try and break into this year’s multi-win club with a Texas triumph.
Ryan Blaney’s No. 12 Discount Tire Ford Mustang at Bristol Motor Speedway before the Food City 500 on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Carson Hocevar
A week after his massively popular maiden win, can Carson Hocevar possibly go back-to-back? No driver has pulled off this feat for their first two Cup wins in over 60 years. The Spire No. 77 Chevrolet spent much of Texas out front a year ago, and Hocevar has high hopes in his Lone Star State return.
“I feel good about it,” Hocevar said. “Obviously, we were on the pole last year and had speed, and I won my first ever truck race there. We have a lot of momentum and excitement behind us right now, while we go into a track that it is realistic to be up front and contend all day. We have been looking forward to and circling Texas for a couple weeks, so what happened last weekend is really an added bonus.”
“I don’t really know, it just works out. The two ends are different, which makes you keep thinking about the line you are going to run and how you will make it through the corner. It is a really fast place with a high grip levels, and on the Cup Series side, we really excel at tracks with similar characteristics. It has just been a good place for me and I look forward to going every year.”
Spire Motorsports knows how to bring fast cars to Texas. This was shown with Hocevar’s pole and Michael McDowell’s near-win last year. Still Riding the ‘Dente high into TMS, Hocevar shouldn’t be overlooked at one of his favorite tracks.
Carson Hocevar’s No. 77 Spectrum Chevrolet Camaro at Bristol Motor Speedway before the Food City 500 on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Tyler Reddick
Already a winner at the most recent intermediate race, Tyler Reddick is gunning for his own back-to-back wins. The 23XI Racing team has a .500 batting average at five wins through 10 races, and could go 6-11 at Texas.
Reddick has tamed Texas before, in 2022’s fall race with a lame duck RCR team. Reddick’s three Texas starts since his win have seen him lead each time, but only record a best finish of fourth. Reddick rides into Texas still with a commanding 110-point gap over the field. Now amid his hottest stretch ever, the 45 should be a strong threat once again on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick’s No. 45 Pinnacle Toyota Camry on pit road from EchoPark (Atlanta) Speedway before winning the Autotrader 400 on Sunday, February 22, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Joey Logano
Defending Texas winner Joey Logano is in desperate need of something positive to correct his season. Through the opening 10 races, Penske’s No. 22 finds itself 15th in points with only three top-10s. Texas has been a bright spot for Logano in recent years, however. Dating back to 2016, the 22’s been top-10 in all but four trips to The Lone Star State.
Coming off back-to-back sub-30th place runs in Kansas and Talladega, the three-time champion needs something to stop the bleeding. Falling dangerously close to the Chase cut line, Logano needs a season reset badly. Texas fell into the 22’s favor a year ago; similar fortunes could be ahead for this top-flight team.
Joey Logano’s No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford Mustang at Bristol Motor Speedway before the Food City 500 on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Photo credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Texas may have a bit of everything as the least-conventional intermediate track in NASCAR. One driver and team will be rewarded handsomely after surviving 400 miles of chaos, attrition, and unpredictable drama. The Würth 400 goes green Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Written by Peter Stratta
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