NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Serve Up a Playoff Opening win at the Cook Out Southern 500?
Six months and over 9,000 miles of racing have whittled the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series down to 16 contenders. Playoff race number one lies ahead with the 76th annual Cook Out Southern 500 from Darlington Raceway. Should one of these 16 title hopefuls take the checkers Sunday night, they would see an automatic bid onto the Round of 12. Many of these contenders are past Darlington masters as well. Here’s who could shake up the standings after NASCAR’s toughest, grittiest race.
Denny Hamlin
Perhaps no driver across NASCAR history is more suited to Darlington Raceway’s unique quirks than Denny Hamlin. Driver 11 has pulled into victory lane here five times, most recently in April. Dating back to 2021’s Southern 500, Hamlin has two wins and five top-10s in eight Darlington starts. This same span also includes laps led in every trip to South Carolina. Now entering his record 19th NASCAR Playoffs, Hamlin is walking on air heading to his statistically-best track.
“I’ve been confident before but also had my heart broke for something out of my control,” Hamlin said. “I just try to do the best I can to play it day-by-day and week-by-week. Right now, the focus is all on Darlington. I haven’t looked at one shred of thing from St. Louis. It’s not even on the radar. I’m so week to week with my goals that I feel as though, let’s just somehow figure out how to get to 60 wins before the end of the season. If I can do that it’s probably going to put myself in a pretty good position to win.”
Despite Hamlin’s sustained Darlington mastery, his win here this season came on the strength of his pit crew. The No. 11 team got Hamlin off pit road first for overtime, where Hamlin was unbeaten over the final two laps. A few other contenders did have Hamlin’s number that day, so it was far from a dominant day for the 11. Coming into the Southern 500 chasing a season sweep and third in points, expect Hamlin to be a rightful favorite to win his favorite race again.
Kyle Larson
Never one to be counted out at Darlington is Kyle Larson. Finally breaking through here in this race two years ago, Larson’s Southern 500 triumph was a long time coming. Driver No. 5 tallies over 1,000 laps led here and nine top-10s in 15 starts. For as much bad luck as he’s found in the spring race, the Labor Day Weekend Classic has been Larson’s time to shine. Young Money has a Southern 500 top-five in three of the last four years. Now entering this year’s race as the co-points leader, Larson is confident of continuing his Darlington hot streak and possibly scoring another victory.
“I think we’ve been kind of quietly getting better here lately with the 5 team,” Larson said. “We get to go to one of our better tracks at Darlington, and hopefully can get some momentum for our final 10 weeks. It’s a fun time of year; I’m excited about the opportunity to race for another championship and wouldn’t want to do it with any other group. So, looking forward to doing it with Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.Com and see if we can get Chevy a win.”
The apparent summer slump for Larson still saw the 5 earn three top-fives and seven top-10s. This stretch included a pair of sixth-place runs the last two weeks. Can the 5 team come out of the gates swinging at Darlington in full Playoff mode? Larson did exactly that in 2023, and was close to repeating that feat last year. If anyone will keep Hamlin on his toes throughout 500 miles, it’s his best friend Larson.
Ryan Blaney
Had the overtime yellow not flown at Darlington in the spring, Ryan Blaney was in position to take his maiden win here. His father Dave Blaney is forever immortalized in Darlington history as a player in the iconic 2003 Carolina Dodge Dealers 400 finish. With that memory in mind for every South Carolina trip, Blaney would love nothing more than to win at this storied track. Poised for a deep Playoff run as the fourth seed, Blaney loves how this first round stacks up for the Penske 12 team.
“I feel like all of them kind of play to our strengths,” Blaney said. “The spring race at Darlington this year was great for us. We had it won and had a late yellow. Then I look at Gateway has always been a great track for us as a group at Team Penske. We’ve won two out of the three races there and I’ve run really well in the other one, so I think just as a whole that place is good to us. And Bristol, I think we’ve been getting better at that place. I feel like last year was a little bit of a struggle for us, but I loved how our car was there in the spring, so I can’t really pick out a track in particular that I feel the strongest about in that first round.”
Relegated to fifth at the finish in April, this marked Blaney’s best result yet at The Track Too Tough To Tame. Coming off the heels of a breakout Daytona win, team 12 rides on a victory high into postseason round one. Can momentum carry them to a second-straight win? Penske will try and grab the one that got away from them four months ago.
William Byron
Nobody was more on rails at Darlington in April than William Byron. After starting on pole, the No. 24 Chevrolet drove off and hardly ever looked back. In total Byron led the opening 243 laps, with a realistic shot to pace the field wire-to-wire. This perfect afternoon only came undone under the final pit cycle. Byron would eventually have to settle for second when the dust settled. Darlington was just one of a few dominant days gone sour for the 24 this season. With similar track conditions expected on Sunday, Byron enters the Southern 500 as the prerace favorite. A lot like Blaney, the opening trio of Playoff racetracks do set up very nicely for Byron.
“I mean, I think Gateway’s been tough for us sometimes, so I think just trying to get a handle on that,” Byron said. “Kyle (Larson) did a test there, so hopefully we’ll have some good information there. And then Bristol’s pretty status quo. I mean, nothing’s really changed there a lot. The tires been pretty similar the last few fall races, and Darlington is pretty similar. It looks like weather’s similar to what it was in the spring.”
For most of this year’s Goodyear 400, William Byron was on track to become the first man to lead every Cup lap in almost a quarter-century. Darlington win number two was not in Byron’s grasp that day, with driver 24 now eyeing vengeance. Expect this Hendrick team to come out swinging for the fences again in Darlington, and possibly earn a retribution win.
Chase Briscoe
Few NASCAR wins in recent memory have carried as many emotions as Chase Briscoe’s 2024 Southern 500 triumph. After following in Kyle Larson’s tire tracks for hundreds of laps, Briscoe made the winning move inside of 30 laps left and held off every charge for this breakthrough triumph. This marked the final Cup win for Stewart-Haas Racing, and sent their flagship No. 14 into the Playoffs one more time. A year removed now in the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19, Briscoe likes his chances at back-to-back crown jewel wins. This comes despite Darlington in the spring being the 19’s self-admitted worst race of 2025.
“Yeah, it’s way different,” Briscoe said. “I don’t even think you can look at the first, really all the way up to the Coke 600. It was a totally different race team than what it is now. I think at the Coke 600, I think we had a total of 17 stage points scored, and now, probably over 100, I would say. It’s definitely a different race team, totally different feel to it, confidence, everything. Darlington (in the spring), I would say was probably our worst race this season, but I feel like we’re just a totally different race team.”
Briscoe has called right now the best shot he’s had yet to win a Cup title. Nowhere would a Briscoe championship run be more fitting to start than at Darlington, where the Indiana native’s seen two career-defining wins. Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are always elite threats here, giving Briscoe ample optimism for a second checkered flag of the season.
Tyler Reddick
If anyone is due for a Darlington win it’s Tyler Reddick. The 23XI Racing driver has laps led in four-straight races here, with three top-10s in that span. Second to Larson in 2023’s Southern 500 is one of two Darlington runner-ups for driver 45, with a .500 batting average of six career top-10s. Reddick’s loose is fast and wall riding driving style suits Darlington Raceway to a tee. If anything it’s more shocking that he’s not yet won here, with over 300 circuits paced. Can lucky start 13 be the breaking point for Reddick finally finding Darlington victory lane?
“For me, going to Darlington to start really helps,” Reddick said. “That’s a track for me that even when I like just can’t even function as a driver we still manage to run somewhere in the top 10. I feel like over the years that’s a place that when we’re strong we’re upfront, we’re leading laps and when we’re a little off we’re still in the top 10 and top five. So, for me, that’s just been one of those tracks just whether it’s the spring race or the Southern 500, it’s just a really good track for me.”
“Don’t take this the wrong way – I think it is all of [Darlington]’s little imperfections that make it perfect. All of the little details and that the wall isn’t just perfectly smoothed out. It has waves in certain spots. The holes, the bumps, the seams, the patches that they’ve had to put in over the years. All of the little things that add up to a really tricky, tough race track to get around. I think – nowadays, all of these tracks are built – they try to have them perfectly flat, smoothed out. Yes, they are great race tracks, but a place like Darlington – it’s been there as long as it has. It has a lot of character. It has a lot of things that a track, if it was built today, wouldn’t have. I think for me, that is what makes it so great.”
“If I miss the bottom, I just try to move up. I just keep moving up until I find competitive lap time and at a place like Darlington, yeah, pretty much after lap two or three, you are pretty much at the top ripping. For me, it is my comfort zone, honestly.”
Darlington may not quite be a must-win race for Reddick, but a strong performance is necessary for the 45. Reseeded to 14th on the Playoff grid, Reddick’s already starting out in a points hole. This gap will be tougher to climb out of with each passing week. The good news is that his deficit is one point, and Darlington is one of his best statistical tracks. A banner Sunday may be ahead for the 45 team, who’s been trending towards that elusive Darlington trophy. Out of all winless drivers this year, Reddick has the best chances ahead at taking the crown jewel victory.
500 grueling miles around Darlington Raceway are modern NASCAR’s greatest test of man and machine. Despite the Coca-Cola 600 being longer distance, the Southern 500 is a far more taxing time behind the wheel. The South Carolina green flag will fly Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The 76th running of this tradition-steeped race will help shape the championship picture as the opening Playoff race once again.
Written by Peter Stratta
Be sure to follow us on Twitter
Be sure to follow the writer on Twitter
Photo Credits to Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
