NASCAR
Who Sits Where with 12 Races Left Until The 2026 Chase?
Only 12 dates remain in the race to The Chase, with championship battles lines already drawn. 14 weeks into the 2026 season, eight NASCAR Cup Series drivers have seen victory lane. As of now though, none of them are fully locked into the 10-race postseason. Here’s how the top 20 drivers find themselves after Nashville, and each team’s outlook for the summer stretch.
Chase Locks
While nobody is truly locked in yet under The Chase format, there is a breakaway atop the standings. Six drivers have separated themselves from the pack, with five of them owning checkered flags this season. Tyler Reddick’s historic start to 2026 yielded five wins in the first nine races. His huge points lead has remained constant ever since with 11 top-10s. Reddick’s championship advantage may have shrunk recently, but it’s still over a race’s gap at 97 points. The 23XI Racing No. 45 is positioned very nicely for a second regular season championship in three years.
The only man within eyesight of Reddick is his boss Denny Hamlin. Now a two-time winner this year after Nashville last week, Hamlin’s been red hot this season with nine top-10s and a series-high 756 laps led. The last three weeks alone for the No. 11 have seen dominant wins at the All-Star Race and Nashville, spliced by a near-miss at Charlotte. Team 11 has a few of their historically best tracks in the coming weeks. The chance does exist for Hamlin to make further inroads on Reddick.
Firmly a top-five points presence since March, Ryan Blaney continues to carry the banner for both Team Penske and Ford. The No. 12’s also been top-10 in three of the last four weeks, now trailing the lead by 174 points. The Phoenix winner from March did lead several laps in Nashville, one of his nine top-10s this season.
Chase Elliott has seen his earliest ever multi-win season, and is on track for a championship-caliber year. Chase’s march to The Chase currently finds driver 9 with eight top-10s and 199 laps led. All of these accolades come amid a new Chevrolet body that’s hampered many teams. Few may have foreseen Elliott as being Hendrick’s top dog this far into the season. The 9 is still their only man to find victory lane. Experience and consistency are two heavy factors in team 9’s favor. Both could reward Elliott nicely come Chase time.
The career season continues for Ty Gibbs, capped off by his maiden victory at Bristol in April. This high point came during a seven-week top-10 run for the 23-year-old, his best run yet in Cup. Gibbs is now fifth in points, the highest he’s ever been at this point in a season. Thanks to Toyota’s incredible intermediate pace, it would not be shocking to see the No. 54 be P1 again before The Chase hits.
Reigning Cup champion Kyle Larson trails Gibbs by 40 points, still searching for his first win of 2026. Now riding a 38-race losing drought, the 5’s been batting .500 for top-10s this year with four top-fives. Second in Kansas remains Larson’s best result this year, but him winning is likely bound to happen again. Regular season wins aplenty or not, Larson cannot and should not be counted out of championship talks as a dark horse threat.
Sitting Pretty
Second for the last two weeks, Christopher Bell’s time appears to be coming very soon. Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 20 Toyota has almost 400 laps led this year, with three runner-ups to their name. Toyota’s almost unmatched intermediate pace has yet to pay off for the Oklahoma driver. His turn at victory lane could be as soon as this weekend. Struck out of Championship 4 appearances for two years, Bell hopes to bring the magic again with The Chase format he helped create. The coming summer stretch could be a banner run for Bell, trying to join his Toyota teammates as title favorites.
With a best finish of second this season, Chris Buescher’s quiet consistency has taken a step up. The RFK Racing No. 17 was within eyesight of winning Talladega, and five other top-10s place them eighth in points. Leading the charge for the Ford team, Buescher has proven the ability to win on any track type. Riding his own lengthy losing drought of 58 starts, Buescher aspires to find victory lane again.
Beating Buescher at Talladega was Carson Hocevar, picking up a very popular first career win. Past this superspeedway triumph, Hocevar’s third Cup season has been highlighted with six top-10s. This includes 10th at Nashville last week. Leading the charge for Spire Motorsports, the No. 77 is firmly entrenched at ninth in the standings, 79 points clear of the Chase cutoff. Simply making the 16-man dance would be a new career high for Hocevar. This Chevrolet team does aim even higher though, with outside title threat chances.
Teammate Daniel Suarez rounds out a double top-10 in the standings for Spire Motorsports. Team 7 is still on Cloud 9 from winning the Coca-Cola 600, and have put together Suarez’s hottest start to a season yet. Suarez appears to be a man on a mission this season to redefine himself and his value as a Cup driver. A third career Chase appearance would do wonders for Suarez and his stock. The Mexico native is currently on a one-year deal in the 7.
Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the season so far is William Byron still being winless. At 11th in points, the Hendrick No. 24 has only seen seven top-10s, 34 laps led, and a best finish of third this year. Two sub-30th place runs in the last three races have seen Byron tumble from flirting with top-five in points. Now precariously close to the Chase cut line, Byron hasn’t been in this territory in several seasons. Yet to fully execute a flawless race this season, the 24 team still has to find some speed with the new Chevrolet nose. They will also need a bit of luck if they are to be title contenders again.
Above the Cut Line
The upward trajectory of Shane van Gisbergen continues to defy logic and set new expectations. Coming off arguably his two best oval races yet, the road course ace finds himself 12th in points. Upcoming back-to-back races at San Diego and Sonoma are all but a shoo-in max-points days for the Kiwi. Equally impressive and fun to watch has been his oval progression. 11th in Charlotte and fifth in Nashville were both new best results for the Team Trackhouse driver. Assuming positive outcomes from the road courses later this month, SVG may stay well above water in the Chase points battle. Oval results getting better by the week may also have the 97 as a winning threat a few times this fall.
Falling to 13th in points after Nashville, Brad Keselowski guns for a 13th career Chase showing and third as a team owner. The last five weeks, however, have been a rough stretch for the No. 6 Ford. Keselowski’s recorded three finishes of 30th or worse in this run, emphasized by being wrecked out of Nashville. Still treading water for now by 43 points, Keselowski eyes greener pastures ahead this summer. It’s been over two years since the 6 last pulled into victory lane. The 2012 champion yearns to be a front running contender again.
Following a horrendous start to 2026, Chase Briscoe has been trending forward in recent weeks. The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is now 14th in points, after top-fives in two of the last three races. Mirroring his slow rise to title threat in 2025, this stretch of last year saw Briscoe come to life and put together incredible consistency. It would not be shocking to see the 19 break out and join his Toyota teammates as a regular winning threat.
Free-falling in the last few weeks after a lightning start to 2026, Bubba Wallace is now only 34 points above the cut line at 15th. 23XI Racing’s flagship No. 23 Toyota was second in points in March, but three-straight sub-20th place results have seen Wallace lose massive ground. Wallace has yet to lead a single lap this year not on a superspeedway, and only has two top-10s in his last nine starts. Historically slow out of the gate, Wallace usually catches fire over the summer months. It will be intriguing to see if this trend continues for Wallace in 2026. A second-straight Chase appearance may just be in the cards for the 23.
Currently the last man in the Chase by two points is the No. 2 of Austin Cindric. The Penske driver has seen four top-10s this year, capped off by a fifth-place Darlington run. Cindric has a 20th-place average finish to date in 2026. He called Darlington their first race with a fast car all year. It is likely that Cindric will stay in the thick of this tight points battle down the regular season stretch. Cindric’s Chase aspirations may come down to crunch time at Daytona. The World Center of Racing has been very kind to the 2 in recent years.
In the Hunt
Year two at RFK Racing has been a solid progression for Ryan Preece, but not free from speed bumps. The No. 60 Ford fell out of the top 16 with radiator issues in Nashville, only compounding recent struggles. Texas also saw Preece penalized 25 points for contact that sent Ty Gibbs spinning after premeditated radio comments. Back-to-back DNFs between Watkins Glen and Nashville have seen Preece fall out of contention for now. But this gap is only a mere two points that could be reversed.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment driver so far this season has been Joey Logano. The three-time Cup champion would be outside The Chase if things started today, falling nine points out of the top 16. Logano’s lackluster 2026 so far has only seen four top-10s. Logano recently also endured a career-worst run of four races finishing 30th or worse. Alarm bells should be ringing inside the walls of Team Penske. Their multi-time Cup winner should not be floundering to even make 16th in points. While Logano is far from being eliminated after 14 races, his championship aspirations have certainly taken a big hit for this season.
In year two with Spire Motorsports, Michael McDowell punches above his weight class at 19th in points. The No. 71 team has seen three top-10s, with two of them on road courses including a Watkins Glen runner-up. Road course are definitely McDowell’s wheelhouse; two of them later this month could keep him in Chase talks alongside both teammates. The veteran should not be counted out of making this year’s Chase a perfect Spire trifecta.
Thanks to back-to-back top-10s at Charlotte and Nashville, Zane Smith has ascended to 20th in points. Only 34 points out of the top 16, it is not inconceivable for Front Row Motorsports to play upset here. Driver 38 has put up five top-10s through 14 weeks, including a fifth-place run at Talladega. The third year Cup driver has been quietly great and carried this team in years past. Another few breakout runs could see the 38 rise even further up the standings.
Currently separated by almost 400 points, the top 20 in Cup standings tell the stories of many different positive and negative seasons so far. The top six or 10 drivers all find themselves nicely positioned for a Chase berth in 12 weeks. However, that leaves a large chunk of contenders still undecided. A lot of hungry teams remain in the hunt too. Many quality drivers will be left on the outside looking in for the final 10-race push to the Cup. How the points shuffle over the next 12 races will be a constantly evolving storyline. This weekly drama and intrigue is a large piece of what makes The Chase so enthralling.
Written by Peter Stratta
Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X
Be sure to follow the writer on Twitter/X
Photo credits to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
