NASCAR
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Preview: Joe Gibbs Racing & 23XI Racing
Between their two powerhouse teams, Toyota almost has a one-in-three shot at taking the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series title. Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing have combined for nine wins across the regular season, elevating five drivers to contender status. It’s been six years since a Toyota stood tall on championship stage, here are the drivers hoping to end that streak.
Denny Hamlin – 2,029 points
An argument can be made that Denny Hamlin is the most well-rounded driver in Cup today. Tied with a season-best four wins, the No. 11 starts out as the third seed on the heels of 13 top-10s. Hamlin could have been seeded even higher, but early Daytona troubles saw him lose ground in the regular season title. Now in his all-time record 19th Playoff appearance, Hamlin’s experience and confidence at claiming the elusive Cup are both as high as ever.
“It’s just another chance to roll the dice,” Hamlin said. “That’s it. I don’t feel any better or any worse than what I have last year or the year before that or the year before that. They’re all very, very similar. I feel as though our team is as strong as it’s ever been. But we’ve seen in the short sample size, it’s just a matter of whether you get unlucky at times or you catch a caution at the right time or not. Do you stub your toe on pit road? Those are the small things that decide whether you move on in the Playoffs or not.”
“Our strengths are just conventional ovals. Anything that turns left is going to be our strength. We’re in the unique position, there’s truthfully about four or five of us that are the fastest cars every single week and there’s others, right? It’s just, do you have enough of a head start through your Playoff points and whatnot to keep moving on? Do you have enough to sustain a bad day that everyone has during the course of a season? The challenge will be obviously Talladega. I don’t think I’ve avoided a superspeedway wreck in about 10 years now – or it feels that way. And then, what happens at the Roval, right? There’re so many different strategies and stuff that can happen. What points position are you in before you get to there? A lot of that will be dictated in the first couple races of that round.”
Each round of the Playoffs are populated with some of Hamlin’s best statistical racetracks. Nowhere is that more evident than the opening round including both Darlington and Bristol. With every win being one step closer to the Bill France Cup, expect Hamlin to come out of the gates swinging for these Playoffs. Inching ever so closer to his career goal of 60 Cup victories, Hamlin may have this locked up in a matter of weeks. As we’ve seen in recent years, every bonus point will be worth its weight in gold for the 11 team in later rounds. Hamlin is hoping that the 19th time’s the charm finally solidifying him as a NASCAR champion.
Christopher Bell – 2,023 points
Going back to the early weeks of 2025, a breakout season appeared to be brewing for Christopher Bell. Joe Gibbs Racing driver 20 won races two through four in convincing fashion, but hasn’t won since. Recent weeks have seen the 20 show back up with a few top-tens. There has yet to be a full return to form for Bell though, with leading laps and battling for wins. Bell explained that flipping a metaphorical switch to Playoff mode isn’t easy, but the best teams still find a way to do this yearly.
“I don’t want to say it is easy, but it is expected,” Bell said. “Every driver and every Playoff contending team really does a good job of that, and my team – what I’ve learned from them the last couple of years – is they just do an excellent job of being the best when it matters the most. Through a number of years now – we have come off kind of a slump leading into the Playoffs. Then all of a sudden we go there and have our best car performance, our best speed and I feel confident in it.”
“I don’t think we need to do anything different. Just keep plugging away. I’ve actually asked Adam (Stevens, crew chief) that because I was a little bit concerned about that a couple of weeks ago, and he said we are not doing anything different than we were when we won three races in a row to start the season. So, we’ve got a great team, a great process and we are going to keep after it, and we are going to great race tracks for us. I think we have all of the tools to go out there and execute and win races, and hopefully we can do that.”
Based on results from early this season, Bell should be almost a Championship 4 lock. He was runner-up at Martinsville in March, weeks after dominating Phoenix. Perhaps the only area of concern for Bell ahead is the Round of 8 date at Talladega. In this apparent summer slump, Bell’s quietly been runner-up four times. Tied for the second-most Cup top-10s this season, expect Bell to be a Round of 8 presence again and contend for another Phoenix berth. Immediate wins are far from necessary for the fifth seed, but the 20 should contend across the coming weeks.
Chase Briscoe – 2,010 points
The newcomer at Joe Gibbs Racing, Chase Briscoe has turned heads this year. Briscoe and the 19 crew finally broke into victory lane at Pocono in June, and are a seemingly constant top-five presence. Briscoe’s 10 top-fives this year trail only Hamlin and Kyle Larson, showing elite consistency from the 19 team. Unlike his past Playoff experiences, Briscoe truly feels like a title-level threat this season.
“I was telling my wife that couple weeks ago, ‘this is really the first time I’ve ever legitimately thought I could win a Cup championship,'” Briscoe said. “In the past, you make the Playoffs and it’s exciting, but down deep you kind of know that the odds of you winning are pretty slim, right? Whereas now, not to say that I’m the favorite by any means, but I feel like I have a legitimate chance to go do it, where at SHR, you never really felt like you had a legitimate shot to do it. Definitely feels different this time around knowing that you have a shot and I would say this Playoffs feels different because of that.”
“Definitely feels different than the prior Playoff runs, because of the situation, right? Like you were saying, I kind of have everything I need now where before, you’re just kind of excited to be there and you’re hoping that works out, but you know it’s going be an up-hill. Where now, I feel like if we can just execute, we have a really good chance to potentially win the championship. So yeah, it definitely feels different this time around and yeah, hopefully we can you know put it all together.”
Briscoe is far from a stranger to Playoff success, and his 2025 efforts show no signs of slowing down. Entering Darlington as the reigning Southern 500 winner, confidence will be high in the 19 team to repeat this victory. Past that, their qualifying results lead the series with six poles. A win may not be on the immediate horizon for Briscoe. He does however have speed to possibly make a deep Playoff run. Still in the midst of their first year together, it will be fun to see how far this 19 team progresses.
Bubba Wallace – 2,008 points
Finally breaking through with a first ever regular season win at Indianapolis in July was Bubba Wallace. The month of racing since then has been largely stress-free for the 23XI Racing driver. As a result, he enters his second Playoff showing with a renewed sense of confidence and belief in his team. Wallace said getting the Playoff monkey off his back was a big milestone this year. He relishes in the opportunity ahead to set new career high points.
“We’re not settled on the Indy win,” Wallace said. “It was a great opportunity that we capitalized on to set ourselves up for the ultimate goal, which is what we had in store at the beginning of the year which was to be a champion. And so immediately after Indy, I skipped the next four or five – whatever it was – and looked at the Playoffs. Honestly, got really excited about each and every race that’s coming up. I don’t look at any round as, ‘Oh man, this might be a struggle for us.’ Then, I also look at the Playoff field the last couple weeks and man, no one is really running away from it if I want to echo Denny (Hamlin). Yeah, you can’t run away from it if you reset the points every time. But, man, no one’s had like a breakout. You have a guy who can get on a hot streak for a couple races and then it’s somebody else. I think we’re all in for a treat – drivers and spectators – for just how this Playoffs is going to go. I don’t feel like 2023 Playoff Bubba. Where like, ‘Oh man, it’s cool to be talking to you guys for Playoff media day.’ I feel like I belong here and want to continue this trend and have the upmost confidence in our team and our ability and potential to carry this into making a deep run into the Playoffs. It all started back in February, but everything just ramps up another notch for the next 10 weeks.”
2025 may be the first time Wallace won his way into the Playoffs, but he has past postseason experience. Driving the No. 45 in 2022’s Owner Playoffs, Wallace wheeled that team to a career-best 10th in points. Prior years also have team 23 peaking in the closing months of the year, including both of Wallace’s previous wins. Focus and the right mindset were both evident from Wallace at media day. Should he keep his head space clear for 10 weeks, then the sky truly is the limit for 23XI Racing’s flagship team.
Tyler Reddick – 2,006 points
One of the last men into the Playoffs has had an uncharacteristically off season. Tyler Reddick enters as the 14th seed, a far fall from last year’s regular season championship. Winless through 26 weeks, Reddick’s best results have been Daytona 500 runner-up and a pair of third-place runs at COTA and Chicago. Far from a stranger to being on either extreme of the Playoff leaderboard, Reddick still thinks his team can perform after this reset.
“I think it’s just experience,” Reddick said. “Yeah, for me, I was on the good side of it last year. I’ve done this a few times. Coming in with very little Playoff points so it’s just all experience. Last year was a little nicer one, right? Because we were able to have those Playoff points to fall back on. It seemed like even though we had them in each round, we found our way into trouble. So, I think this time around we’ve got to be much more on top of it. We don’t have that much room for error but that’s okay. There are some good tracks. Obviously, Darlington is a great one to start at. There’s a lot of good tracks in the Playoffs for this team I think.”
“Got to look at a lot of numbers and a lot of things. I don’t know if it helped. I think it added to the frustration. Even more reason for a reset going into the Playoffs, if you will. Pretty much don’t do what we did the first 26 races. We’ve been in a position to win and lose, we just – don’t take ourselves out. Yeah, there’s plenty of things on a more serious note to go over. Looking at how we’ve been doing things. Everyone on the team has been looking into that, working hard, reflecting. And, yeah, the word reset has been thrown around a lot today. I feel like that’s a good way for us to look at it as well. Yeah, we’ve had a tough regular season. Yes, we’re behind the cut line and everything else. But the points margins are all closed up quite a bit with the Playoff seeding. We’ve just got to go out there and do what we’ve been capable of all year – just do it this time.”
If anyone in this year’s Playoffs is a true head scratcher, it’s Tyler Reddick. This team is more than capable of rattling off wins and going far, but something seems off in 2025. Only nine top-10s was good enough to have Reddick seventh in points. That gets wiped away now with Reddick reseeded to almost the bottom of the barrel. Stage points in the opening three races will be especially vital to a possible championship run for the 45 team. Reddick needs to find a way to gain lost ground on his competitors. This 23XI Racing team is only below the cut line by one point though. In short, all hope is far from lost for another deep Reddick run.
Making up three of the top eight 2025 Playoff seeds, Toyota teams have strength in numbers. Is a fourth Bill France Cup in the immediate future for this manufacturer? Between youth and veteran experience JGR and 23XI Racing have both ends of these extremes covered. Five talented bullets are in their gun moving forward. Do not be surprised to see any of these drivers be constant threats over the next 10 weeks, and be in contention at Phoenix Raceway.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Jared C. Tilton, Justin Casterline, Jonathan Bachman, and Chris Graythen/Getty Images
