NASCAR
Is 2025 the Most Evenly Balanced NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 Yet?
Over 12,000 miles of competition spread across America and stretched over eight months has left four men standing in the quest for 2025’s highest NASCAR prize–the Bill France Cup. In year 12 of this winner-take-all finale format, a historic precedent may have been reached. Representing 15 of the 35 wins so far this season, the Championship 4 display incredible statistical equality among them. Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing will be rewarded the ultimate trophy on Sunday. Here are the four contestants going for this honor and their chances at cementing themselves in American racing lore.
Denny Hamlin
Is it finally Denny Hamlin’s year to clinch the long-pursued Cup Series title? Making his 20th bid at the Cup, driver 11’s been locked into the Championship 4 the longest after winning Las Vegas two weeks ago. That day marked Hamlin’s series-leading sixth victory of 2025, and already achieved a career milestone. This was Hamlin’s 60th Cup triumph, tying him with Kevin Harvick for 10th on NASCAR’s all-time wins list. Now gearing up for a fifth Championship 4 bid, Hamlin may just be the sentimental favorite to eclipse this crowning accomplishment.
“It’s week-to-week,” Hamlin said when asked if he’s the title favorite. “I wish I could tell you that we are just faster, I don’t know. We have an equal chance as Corey Heim, who has dominated his season. He’s still got a 25% chance, and that’s what we are going to have next week. I’m optimistic about where we are running. These NASCAR races sometimes come down to things that are just unpredictable. You just hope that the things that are out of your control don’t inhibit you in any kind way. But I think on the racetrack if we do our jobs I think we will be one of the guys who will contend next week.”
“The list is too long. I can’t tip my hat on [Martinsville translating to Phoenix]. Getting better is the short answer. As a driver, I have always thought that Phoenix has not been my strong suit even though it’s in my wheelhouse of shorter flat tracks. So half the focus has been on myself more so than trying to get everything I can out of the car.”
Hamlin’s had the longest to mull over and prepare for Phoenix, but this is team 11’s first Championship 4 showing since 2021. Hamlin was also second by a fender to teammate Christopher Bell here in March, showing the veteran’s short track acumen. That day was also Hamlin’s best Phoenix result since winning here in 2019. The Next Gen era has seen the 11 be a stout contender in seven Phoenix starts, with a 10.9 average finish. It will take a total and mistake-free team effort, however, to deliver Hamlin his elusive title. Following recent mechanical woes from Joe Gibbs Racing, there is some reason for hesitancy with this Toyota. Should Hamlin stay clean and rise onto the championship stage though, it would be the centerpiece on an already-stellar Hall of Fame career.
Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 King’s Hawaiian Toyota Camry on the grid from Martinsville Speedway before the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, October 26, 2025. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Chase Briscoe
Locking into Phoenix a week after Hamlin was his newest teammate–Chase Briscoe. The fifth-year driver is in the midst of a maiden campaign with Joe Gibbs Racing, and a timely Talladega win secured a Championship 4 berth. This team is largely the same group that gave Martin Truex Jr. ample success over the years. Now energized once again with fresh blood behind the wheel, the 19 aspires for another title-winning drive.
“Certainly looking forward to Phoenix,” Briscoe said. “Just the opportunity that it presents. You know, having a one-in-four chance to win a championship is pretty damn cool. So yeah, it’s let’s go there and try to act like it’s another race. I mean, at the end of the day, it is. So, just go there and try to execute. And if we can do that, then we certainly should have a good shot at it.”
“Definitely whoever wins this championship is going to be more than deserving. Yeah, hopefully it’s obviously me. Regardless, just to even be associated with the other guys, it means a lot to me from what my Cup career has started like.”
“It’s definitely going to be a special feeling. I’m excited to go to Phoenix. It’s a place I feel good about. I’m sure it will be emotional. Just having my family there and all those things would be emotional. I’m emotional in general. Yeah, it will be a special day regardless.”
Few if any truly expected Briscoe to go this far in his first outing with Joe Gibbs Racing. The least experienced driver and team in this scenario, Briscoe hopes to turn a first Championship 4 into a Cinderella Cup run. Briscoe did earn his maiden Cup victory at Phoenix Raceway three years ago; he knows exactly what is needed to be perfect here. With only one desert top-five since then, however, the odds are admittedly stacked against the 19. Briscoe is the greenest of these Championship 4 drivers, but we’ve seen title wins before from first-year contenders.
Chase Briscoe’s No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry on the grid from Martinsville Speedway before the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, October 26, 2025. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
William Byron
From the high banks of Daytona to the tight corners of Martinsville, William Byron has been the picture of consistency in 2025. The iconic Hendrick No. 24 overcame incredible odds and pressure for a walk-off win just last week at the Virginia short track. This propelled Byron to a third-straight Championship finale, where his best finish is third. 2025’s Regular Season Champion is aiming a few steps higher this time, hoping that momentum can drive this team to excellence again.
“As a team I think we’ve just been battle tested,” Byron said. “Nothing has come easy, but we have always had the speed and the preparation, just not able to always have the outcome. We can only control what we control and I believe in my team when it comes to that. Martinsville showed that. We’ve been here before, so it feels almost more routine this time to be in this position.”
A future NASCAR superstar may have his coming out party on Sunday. William Byron boasts some of the best Next Gen stats in the series, and trumps his three competitors. Recent desert trips for the 24 have yielded a win (spring 2023), three top-fives, 273 laps led, and an 8th-place average finish. Two other short track wins this year are another feather in the cap for team 24. Already a Daytona 500 Champion and Regular Season Champ for 2025, Byron aims for one more piece of big hardware.
William Byron’s No. 24 Cincinnati Chevrolet on the grid from Martinsville Speedway before winning the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, October 26, 2025. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Kyle Larson
Never one to be counted out of a championship fight is Kyle Larson, the only man looking for repeat glory. The 2021 Cup winner had to watch others celebrate as runner-up in 2023, and has made his third finale in five years. On the strength of three top-fives in the last four weeks, all cylinders appear to be firing right on the Hendrick 5 team.
“I would say this is probably the best I’ve felt about what we’re bringing for the Championship 4 compared any other year,” Larson said. “Everyone at Hendrick Motorsports went to work on getting our flat short track program better. We went to Gateway and we were super strong and New Hampshire we were really good and Phoenix is somewhat similar to those places so I feel like we’ll have a better opportunity to win a championship than we ever had in the Next Gen era. That motivates me and gets me excited.”
“Making the final four is really tough to begin with. Huge props to everyone at Hendrick Motorsports for working hard and getting us to this point. We have a 50 percent chance of winning Mr. H a 15th championship.”
“I would love to win a second championship. I’ve said this before, but I really look up to Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon and to win one more would move me closer to matching guys that I looked up to or surpass them someday. We’re going to try to execute like we have been here lately and see where that puts us.”
Byron’s three Next Gen Phoenix top-fives are only eclipsed by four for Larson, including third here in March. Winless since May, however, might be some reason for concern in the 5 camp’s ability to perform. Recent weeks have seemingly seen Larson return to regular dominant form, however. The last six weeks have seen the 5 be runner-up twice and in the top-10 for all but one race. That lone outlier was Talladega, where Larson ran out of fuel leading on the last lap. Widely regarded as NASCAR’s most talented man today, Larson looks to join the elite as multi-time Cup champions.
Kyle Larson’s No. 5 HendrickCars.Com Chevrolet on the grid from Martinsville Speedway before the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, October 26, 2025. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Both titan teams of 21st century NASCAR now make final preparations to duel for another Cup title. Whoever takes the checkers first on Sunday will have mastered a season’s worth of drama, turmoil, and pressure. The Cup Series Championship Race goes green at 3 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Sunday will also likely be the finale’s last stop at Phoenix Raceway for awhile. It will be a bittersweet curtain call on a defining era of NASCAR competition.
Written by Peter Stratta
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