NASCAR
Who’s On Top for the O’Reilly Series 2026 Chase?
NASCAR’s second-highest National Series is gearing up for a postseason run unlike any other. For the first time ever, the O’Reilly Series will undergo a nine-race Chase for the Championship between 12 contenders. Underdogs could see their names made over these nine weeks, but they will have to outrun the titans of this series. Perennial contenders aplenty are atop the points, with O’Reilly’s best teams represented. Here are Saturday’s top dogs and their chances ahead at hoisting the big trophy in November.
Justin Allgaier – 2,100 points
Saturdays’ standard bearer for 2026, few have been able to match Justin Allgaier anywhere. The championship leader since week four, JR Motorsports car No. 7 once held a series record 265-point lead. This monster gap was only reset to a mere 25-point advantage to start The Chase. The 40-year-old ageless wonder has already earned a career-best six wins this season. In short, Allgaier appears to have a very easy path ahead to title number two. Allgaier was quick to not discount his competition, though. The Midwesterner says a lot of talented teams are hot on his tail.
“The mindset hasn’t changed since Daytona in February,” Allgaier said. “We felt like knowing the change, knowing that we’re going to The Chase, we felt like the beginning of the season needed to be kind of a trial run for for the Chase format. Not only figure out how to kind of amass points and how you gain those points, because you’re really not gaining a ton of points on a given weekend, but kind of how to stop the bleeding whenever you get there. And I feel like we’ve done a really good job of that this year. Obviously it shows with the points that we had. But I also feel like we’ve done a really good job executing in races that I feel like in years past I probably wouldn’t have. We have more wins than I’ve ever had in a single season. Like all those things kind of play into it. So I feel good about even even only having a 25-point lead. I still feel good about it. But at the same time, I think there was one race we lost like 60 or 65 points to the guys up front. That’s not even a full race, so we have to still go out there and execute.”
“I’ve said this before and people laugh at me, but I’ve already accomplished way more in my career than I could have ever have imagined. And I would love to now that now that [daughters] Harper and Willow are both kind of old enough to really soak the moment in and enjoy it. [A championship] would mean even more. But you know, when it’s all said and done, I look at the the teams we’re battling against. I just look at the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series as a whole this year and I go, ‘man, it’s been so awesome and so many good cars and so many good teams and the racing’s been phenomenal.’ Those are the things that we really need to have happen. I think we’re doing a good job of that.”
Allgaier’s unworldly 2026 pace has been far from perfect. But this torrent pace has been enough to maintain a triple-digit gap over the next best man. Of the nine upcoming Chase tracks, seven of them had races earlier this year. Those seven races for Allgaier led to two wins, five top-fives, and laps led in six of them. Already starting out ahead, the 7 has eyes out the windshield heading to Darlington. Allgaier aims for a season sweep at one of his best tracks. Team 7 have a chance to make serious championship inroads this weekend in South Carolina. Allgaier enters this year’s Chase with the highest confidence and a target on his back. Can driver 7 remain the picture of consistency for nine more weeks?
Justin Allgaier’s No. 7 Brandt Professional Agriculture Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Sport Clips/VFW Help a Hero 200 on Saturday, March 21, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Carson Kvapil – 2,075 points
In hot pursuit of his veteran teammate is sophomore start Carson Kvapil. Earning his first two career wins back-to-back in his last three starts, the No. 1 team has caught late-summer heat. Kvapil and the Rodney Childers-led crew have recorded top-10s in their last seven-straight races. This span has seen the 1 rally to the runner-up spot in points. Finally a winner and reset to within striking distance of Allgaier, Kvapil may just smell blood in the water.
“I truthfully do [think we can contend],” Kvapil said. “I think obviously the 7 team, they’re on kill right now. We get to see what they’re doing week-to-week in the shop. They’re doing all the right things and it’s going really good for them. But I feel like our 1 team has really hit our stride these last couple weeks. I mean, I think our average finish has been 1.75 the last four or five races. So that’s that’s doable for a championship, right? But it’s just all about keeping it up and and keeping the ball rolling. Not falling out of the races and running really good week-to-week. I mean if you can run good for a few weeks in a row, cool, right? But to do it for for the whole Chase is going to be a testament to what we have. And I think we have all the resources and all the right people to do those things.”
“Running for three different cars, two different teams, it was really hard to get into that rhythm, I guess you could say. And there was 11 weeks straight where I was in a different number from week to week. So, it was pretty difficult through there. Obviously, we had good runs and we had good finishes in there. But it’s hard to get into winning form in in that way, right? I mean, it’s doable, it’s not an excuse by any means. But once we got back in the 1 full time for the rest of the year, the last couple races, our average finish has been 1.75. So we’ve just been doing all the right things. Now that I’m able to get into that rhythm that everyone else has been getting into, it’s made it a lot easier to to work with the team. We know what we’re bringing to the racetrack and to keep everything consistent.”
Next in class behind Allgaier, Kvapil can make some noise if recent momentum carries over. Rodney Childers is one of the smartest, most calculating minds on pit road. Kvapil also took this team to a title doorstep a season ago. Without winning, 2025’s postseason saw the No. 1 earn two top-fives and make the championship finale. Now with another year’s worth of experience under his belt, Kvapil could be dangerous. The 1 will try to be number 1 once these nine weeks are up, gunning to deliver JRM another title.
Carson Kvapil’s No. 1 Champion Irrigation Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Sport Clips/VFW Help a Hero 200 on Saturday, March 21, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Sheldon Creed – 2,065 points
Finally an O’Reilly Series winner after many years of trying, Sheldon Creed starts out this Chase as the third seed. Being within reach of the dominant JRM duo, Creed is positioned very nicely for a deep championship run. The Haas Factory Team No. 00 owns nine top-fives and 16 top-10s this season in addition to the win. Creed is only trailing Allgaier with these superb results. A seasoned veteran of this series, Creed knows that the championship is attainable, but is also far from an easy task ahead.
“I don’t know if points ever come to you, but I would say wins are still beneficial because it’s 15 points over second,” Creed said. “So obviously wins still matter a lot. But I think it’s going to be whoever can do the best at running top-five in every stage and finish through the next nine. Whoever does that the best with a couple wins is probably going to have the best chance in Homestead or lock it up before then. Our goals are try to win two or three of them. And if you’re not going to win, be as close as you can to winning in the other ones. Score the most points you can.”
“I think we are 35 points behind the leader. So, it’s almost half of a race if you have like a perfect day. But yeah, if we can just go chip away at it, five points here, two there, and and just slowly try to get close. Because you never know what can happen, especially when we get to Talladega late in The Chase. You could DNF early and score single-digit points. So, that’s the goal of what not to do. Just try to be top-five as much as you can through the stages and finishes. If not, you got to be top-10. Just keep yourself in the hunt because anything can happen. Cars could not finish here and there, and that can put you right back in it.”
While not owning as many wins as Allgaier, Creed’s year-long results are in near lockstep with Kvapil for next-best in class. If anyone is to put up a fight against Allgaier, Creed has shown speed at a wide variety of tracks to keep touch with JRM. Only 35 points back of Allgaier, Creed finds himself in a career-best position to contend for the championship.
Sheldon Creed’s No. 00 Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Daytona International Speedway before the Winn Dixie 250 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Jesse Love – 2,060 points
Reigning O’Reilly Series champion Jesse Love has not seen his title defense season go to plan as of yet. Already announced to go onto the Cup Series next year, Love wants to graduate from O’Reilly holding two trophies. The RCR No. 2 Chevrolet has yet to win this season. Despite the goose egg, 13 top-10s and a 12.6 average finish have Love firmly slotted as the fourth seed.
“Obviously, we’re in a different spot this time,” Love said. “We’ve won no races at this point, while last year, I guess we had one and a half. But it is different format, which is fine.”
“We better hope [for tenacity], or else we’re not going to get it done. I think that we’re going to have to lean on [resilience], especially [with] the year we’ve had. We’ve had to lean on it a lot. Had a lot of weird stuff happen. I guess I’m not a luck guy, right? I do think it’s a word that’s overused and just kind of thrown around as an excuse a lot. But this year, with the speed that we’ve had and actually being able to show up and dominate races and then have something silly happen, I guess that word has been a little bit real. We’ve definitely had a lot of of bad luck this year. And if if we don’t have that in the playoffs, then we can win a championship. And if we do continue to have that, then we’re not.”
“I think it’s obviously good that we caught up a lot in the span of 24 hours. But no, I think that it has been a bad month. But just so many things are at least from a driver standpoint out of my control, right? I’m showing up and I’m fastest in practice off the truck. We qualify good and then we’re dominating these races, either early in the race or late in the race, and we have something happen like something break or a pit road penalty or a loose wheel, right? So for myself, I’m not worried about being able to perform at a high enough level to win a championship. I know that I’m performing at that level right now. But if we don’t have those bad things happen in The Chase, we’re going to be fine.”
Love’s best result since winning last year’s championship finale has been three runner-ups. Two of these high points were at tracks that will be in The Chase–Phoenix and Charlotte. Love now enters his swan song run with his championship-winning RCR crew. Starting in Darlington, Love will try to erase a 40-point gap and contend for another title.
Jesse Love’s No. 2 Whelen Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Darlington Raceway before the Sport Clips/VFW Help a Hero 200 on Saturday, March 21, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Austin Hill – 2,055 points
Another RCR driver who’s Cup-bound in 2027, Austin Hill also wants to leave O’Reilly on top. The superspeedway ace opened this season winning Daytona for a fourth time in five years, and also took the checkers in San Diego. Past that, Hill has seen seven top-fives and 11 top-10s through 24 races. Seeded fifth for his fifth postseason showing, Hill hopes to bring the heat this time around with his wealth of experience.
“We definitely want to get a championship right to kind of fill the rest of the void,” Hill said. “But it’s not easy to win 16 races in the O’Reilly Series. I don’t think the O’Reilly Series gets enough credit for how many good race teams there are, how many good drivers there are in the series. Where I’m at in my career, I’m happy with the 16 wins. But a championship would be kind of icing on the cake for me.”
“I wouldn’t say that it would be incomplete necessarily, but I would say that I’m putting a lot of pressure on myself going into the playoffs to perform. To just be perfect and minimize mistakes. Don’t make any mistakes at all throughout the postseason and just hope that it’s enough. If it’s not enough and let’s just say we finish second in The Chase this year, I’m still going to be happy with where I’m at. Like I said, a lot of people can’t sit here and say that they’ve won 16 races in the O’Reilly Series. So for me to be able to say that is very special and very humbling.”
Austin Hill is in the very unique and unfortunate scenario of racing full-time in O’Reilly and the Cup Series. Hill has driven the No. 33 Chevrolet full-time since Kyle Busch’s death in May. I asked Hill if there is anything to gain from racing in both divisions for the next nine weeks.
“I wouldn’t say that it would be a detriment, but I wouldn’t say it’s an advantage either. It’s just kind of neutral. The two cars drive so much different like you’re saying, but I’m also getting seat time. I’m racing around these guys that run Cup each and every week. And I’m seeing things that they’re doing on the racetrack that might be a little different than what you see on the O’Reilly side at times. I think some of that has to come down to how the Cup car drives and stuff and the way you work dirty air. That all kind of plays a factor, but I wouldn’t say that, going on the Cup side has been a negative effect for me. I just have to put my O’Reilly Series hat on when I get in the 21 car and then I got to take that off and put my Cup Series hat on when I get in the 33 car. And juggling the two hasn’t been the easiest. I feel like we’ve kind of gotten in a good routine here as of late. So I don’t think it’s been a negative for me.”
Hill will not be lacking any track time over this Chase run, competing full-time in both series. At 32 years old, Hill is one of the elder statesmen of the O’Reilly Series garage. Hill also recently addressed how much more mental fortitude has been thrust on him amid this very emotional year at RCR. The 21 will certainly be a threat at Talladega in October, but could be a strong contender at the rest of the stops in The Chase too.
Austin Hill’s No. 21 Global Industrial Chevrolet Camaro on the grid at Daytona International Speedway before the Winn Dixie 250 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Brandon Jones – 2,050 points
Carrying the banner for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2026 is Brandon Jones. The iconic Menards colors went to victory lane on this Toyota at Chicagoland in July, and start The Chase ranked sixth. An eighth career O’Reilly Series postseason showing only trails Allgaier (11) for most all-time. With this in mind, Jones trumps most of his competitors in knowing what to expect over the next nine weeks and how to manage peaks and valleys.
“I would say definitely it’s an advantage to go to these racetracks and having the previous knowledge of what we’ve done there,” Jones said. “But also to be a part of The Chase and being a part of the old format and the playoffs for so many years. I think both of us now have the confidence of the emotional highs and lows that you’re going to experience and kind of know what to expect there. I remember being a rookie and the first time that I ever made it into The Chase and you didn’t know how to control all those emotions. And now just through so many years of doing it just seems like it’s just another day in the park. I almost welcome the pressure and almost welcome the experiences that I’ve already dealt with. I’m sure Justin does too. I mean, I was around him a bunch at JR Motorsports when I was there. But he does a good job of really taking a lot of mental notes and even having a big list of things in his notebook as well.”
“So we both do a good job of writing things down and kind of making them better. I would say that being a part of this for as long as I have, it’s got to play an advantage at some point. I don’t know if I know exactly what it’s going to or what it means yet, but definitely we’ll start to see it hopefully in the next coming weeks.”
The top Toyota in 2026 for the all-time winningest O’Reilly Series team, Jones has seen 14 top-10s through 24 races. This includes four of his last five starts, giving team 20 some tangible momentum to build on for The Chase. Jones’ veteran presence could be felt in this postseason, as he is a multi-time past winner at Darlington.
Brandon Jones’ No. 20 Menards/Sylvania Toyota Supra on the grid at Daytona International Speedway before the Winn Dixie 250 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Photo Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
These six drivers will all have a lion’s share of attention, focus, and pressure on them for this nine-week trail. A wide mix of track types will keep everyone on their toes every week in The Chase, with no easy stop ahead. The championship path for one team will begin at Darlington with the Fleetio 200. The Track Too Tough To Tame will go green for the O’Reilly Series Chase Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on The CW, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Written by Peter Stratta
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