Cut to the Chase: Cup Points Battle Late in Regular Season

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NASCAR

Cup Series Chase Cut Line Battle with Three to go in Regular Season

Richmond, New Hampshire, and Daytona are all that remains in NASCAR’s regular season. Three stops left in the 2026 race to The Chase has several drivers in a dogfight. Four men have already locked themselves into the 16-man title fight, but the cut line battle remains tight too. Here are the last drivers in the top 16 and those trying to bump in over the next three weeks.

Joey Logano +89 points

Do we dare doubt Even Year Joey Logano once again? The three-time Cup champion was slow out of the gates to start 2026. However, recent weeks have seen shades of the vintage 22 team. Last month saw the No. 22 break back into victory lane at North Wilkesboro. That win saw Logano leap up into the top 16, a points foundation he’s built on ever since.

Starting with North Wilkesboro, the regular season wraps up with an absolute Murderer’s Row of racetracks for Team Penske. The 22 should be a front-running threat at both Richmond and New Hampshire, and is deft in Daytona’s draft too. Now 89 points in the top 16, Logano is sitting very pretty for a 13th career Chase showing.

Bubba Wallace +68 points

As high as second in points earlier this year, Bubba Wallace has tumbled to 14th on the Chase grid. 23XI Racing’s flagship team has yet to see the same success of Tyler Reddick or Corey Heim. Wallace does have 10 top-10s on the year, showing some regular strength. Wallace’s high point was a runner-up day at San Diego. The Naval Base race saw the No. 23 Toyota battle back from a loose wheel penalty.

Only owning two top-10s in his last six starts, however, Wallace has been treading water in recent weeks. Still safe with almost a full race’s worth of points cushion, team 23 is not in dire straits. If they are to be seen as a serious title threat this fall, a step up in consistency is needed. Wallace has been on victory lane’s doorstep multiple times this season, including his last outing in Iowa. Laps led in four of Wallace’s last five starts shows he can be fast on a variety of track types. Wallace is on pace for what could be a career-best season if he can get over the hump and find another checkered flag.

Shane van Gisbergen +47 points

Road racing ace Shane van Gisbergen went two-for-four on the road this year, and would be a Chase contender now. 15th in standings with five top-fives and seven top-10s on this season are marked improvements all around for the New Zealander. Team Trackhouse’s No. 97 Chevrolet recently set a new career-best oval result at North Wilkesboro, finishing fifth. This equaled his outing from Nashville Superspeedway in June, further solidifying his points buffer.

SVG’s Chase outlook hinges on surviving any catastrophic issues the next three weeks. Iowa was a horrendous day for the 97, finishing 30th after spinning out and battling heat issues. Van Gisbergen has put together respectable runs at both Richmond and New Hampshire before. All could be for nothing though if he does not avoid possible doom at Daytona. Currently Trackhouse’s lone contender in the top 16, SVG eyes a second-straight postseason berth.

Austin Cindric +29 points

The last man in The Chase as things sit now, Austin Cindric occupies the pressure-packed 16th in points spot. The Penske No. 2 Ford has seen four top-10s on the year. More closely, Cindric has been top-15 in seven of his last nine races. As mentioned above with Logano, the string of flat, short ovals line up very well for Team Penske and Ford. Past just those, Cindric is arguably the best in Next Gen superspeedway racing, especially at Daytona.

On paper Cindric should be a Chase shoo-in, but he is at the heart of all points bubble drama. Any outstanding runs by people below him could knock Cindric off his pedestal and leave him outside looking in. The next three weeks will be very cautious yet do-or-die for the 2 team, as they try to make 2026’s Chase a Penske Perfect trio.

Ryan Preece -29 points

Trying to regain lost ground, Ryan Preece is the Chase bridesmaid with three chances left. RFK Racing’s No. 60 Ford has seen five top-10s in 2026, with three over the last six races. Preece was inside the top-16 cut as recently as Sonoma in June, but has stumbled since. Preece’s current points situation is more bittersweet when remembering Texas in May. That day saw the No. 60 penalized 25 points for spinning Ty Gibbs. If not for that err in judgement, Preece may only trail the top 16 by single-digit points.

Owning a few recent strong runs, Iowa left a lot to be desired for the No. 60 with a dismal 20th-place showing. Having a knack for short tracks, Richmond and New Hampshire are both prime opportunities ahead for Preece. The Modified ace was Richmond’s pole winner last year and led 60 laps, giving great optimism for Saturday. RFK Racing is always elite in the draft too, so Preece cannot be counted out at Daytona either. 29 points’ worth of deficit could evaporate in no time.

Ross Chastain -47 points

Perhaps the biggest snake in the grass outside of the top 16, Ross Chastain is not out of contention yet. Trackhouse Racing’s No. 1 was 26th in points not long ago, but has since clawed to within striking distance for The Chase. Seventh at Iowa alone with 40 laps led saw the perennial contender leap up three spots in the standings. If Chastain can merely have three more solid performances, a Chase berth may lie ahead.

Chastain has yet to find victory lane since his Coca-Cola 600 triumph in May 2025. The 1 has only been in the top-five once this year in February’s Atlanta race. With a bit of recent momentum on his side though, Chastain could mount a late-summer surge into a fourth Chase showing.

Brad Keselowski -48 points

2012 Cup champion Brad Keselowski mastered The Chase in his title-winning season, but is now mired at 19th on the grid. RFK Racing’s driver/owner is nearly a full race’s worth of points below the cut line, with time quickly running out. The veteran does have two top-10s in his last three starts and two top-fives this season, but a miracle may need to come for BK.

Keselowski’s drafting prowess is never in doubt on Daytona’s high banks especially, but this last-chance Hail Mary could be too little too late. Richmond and New Hampshire both have to be strong points days for the 6 if he is to have any hope banking on Daytona. Short tracks have been kind to Keselowski in recent memory, but a season-defining run or two might be needed over the coming weeks.

Erik Jones -50 points

Currently 20th in points, Erik Jones’ Chase bid remains alive with three races left. Legacy Motor Club’s No. 43 has seen a marked step up in performance this season, with five top-10s and an 18.2 average finish. Wrecking out so early in Iowa last week did this team no favors though, losing valuable ground in points. Admittedly struggling on short tracks, team 43 must minimize damage over these next two weeks and still may need a Daytona breakthrough.

Both Legacy cars were up front and contending in Daytona’s summer race last year, with Jones finishing fifth that night. The 43 may need to aim even higher though if they are to make the top-16 after week 26. Amid a season dominated by Toyota, Jones tries to put their third team into the 16-man dance.

Points are bound to shuffle in each stage if not lap-by-lap over the next three weeks. Crunch time is here for those hoping to burst the top-16 bubble. Those already floating above the cut line are equally trying to protect their cushion at all costs. Any issues will be amplified at this point, and could turn a contender into a pretender. Since so many team’s entire seasons hinge on making the 16-man title fight, the cut line battle will be a major talking point until the checkers fly in Daytona.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Chris Graythen/Getty Images