Can Toyota’s Reign of Terror be Stopped in The Chase?

Photo Credit to David Jensen/Getty Images

NASCAR

Is it Toyota vs. The World for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Title?

NASCAR’s manufacturer to beat so far in 2026 is also the most well-represented brand in The Chase. Six Toyota teams are in the field of 16 to battle out for the Bill France Cup. Between Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing, Toyota is very top-heavy in The Chase seeding with many top drivers. JGR’s feared foursome have all made the cut, as have the top two men from 23XI. Here’s how they each got here over the regular season and their chances ahead at the next 10 weeks.

Denny Hamlin – 2,100 points

Is Chase appearance number 20 finally the year for Denny Hamlin? NASCAR’s eldest statesman, Hamlin and Toyota No. 11 have seemingly found the Fountain of Youth in 2026. Hamlin won the Regular Season Championship on the back of four wins, including three in a row over the summer. The opening 26 weeks never saw the 11 DNF, with 17 top-10s and a series-best 8.2 average finish. To call Hamlin confident in his team’s abilities this year would be an understatement.

“It is a little different this time around because we have stages and we have more points for winning than the last time we had the Chase,” Hamlin said. “I do think that there’s an opportunity for drivers to make up more points than we had in the past. So, generally, I don’t know that my tenure and experience is necessarily an advantage other than when we see when we go from track to track. I’ve just got a lot of starts at each one of these tracks.”

“I’ve always said I don’t believe in luck, but I don’t know. After 20 years I definitely believe that it’s part of motorsports. I would say, though, generally speaking, there’s going to be less luck involved with whoever wins this championship because the sample size is bigger. It’s no different than analytics in baseball. One at bat, analytics just doesn’t matter. But over the course of a season, you can start to draw a picture. I think that luck is a thing because usually in a one versus one sport, your competition makes a mistake, you capitalize on your opposing team. In NASCAR, your competition makes a mistake, and it can end up costing you your day. So, there’s absolutely an element of luck in our sport.”

Denny Hamlin’s regular season surge ended with an 89-point lead, only to be reset to 25. This gap brings everyone else closer to the fastest man on the year, but does give Hamlin a bit of an edge to start. Having wins at all 10 tracks ahead in The Chase, Hamlin should be seen as a near-weekly threat for victory. Thanks to a larger sample size in this year’s championship round, team 11 could be poised very nicely for a maiden championship. However, Hamlin is the poster child for running into late-season adversity. It remains to be seen if Hamlin will have enough of a points buffer to negate any error.

Tyler Reddick – 2,065 points

Nobody saw a hotter start to the season than Tyler Reddick, winning five of the first nine races. This electric streak for the 23XI Racing Toyota included a Daytona 500 triumph, and going undefeated through the opening three weeks. Since then, however, the No. 45 has nine top-10s in the last 17 races, but offset by five finishes of 30th or worse. This dismal summer stretch saw Reddick give up the points lead and eventually stumble to third in standings. Now starting off The Chase within striking distance of the top, Reddick believes his team is battle-tested to handle any challenge that can be brought on.

“I think we’ve done a good job of putting it behind us each and every week,” Reddick said. “It is more than bad luck. There are things that have happened that we have learned from. And most importantly how we respond and handle those moments and make the most out of them isn’t something that we need to forget or move on from. Yeah, ideally, it’s good to have good points days. But as much as you want to think that you will have 10 races go exactly as planned, no mistakes, no issues. Things are going to happen that you are not ready for and you are going to have to fight through adversity at points. We’ve been through enough of it and ready if we have more of it.”

“It just doesn’t even feel the same. We are going after a championship, but the process, the grind, everything, it’s all way different. It’s so different between the two [formats].”

“Yeah, there was two sides of [the regular season], really. We would be on or we would be off, and not necessarily from a pace standpoint. But just executing and having clean days versus having catastrophic days. I would say if it was all sunshine and roses all day long, you feel good about what you do. But it is important to have a degree of toughness. A degree of understanding how to deal with losses, how to deal with failures, whatever it is. We’ve been on both sides of it this year.”

2026 for Reddick can be characterized as a tale of two seasons. The opening third of the year had many thinking the No. 45 was unbeatable anywhere, only for reality to set in over the summer. One of Reddick’s triumphs was at Darlington, the site of this weekend’s Chase opener. Should Reddick come out of the box lights-out quick again, he may be facing down his best championship chance yet. If there is any roadblock for Team 45, however, then their early-season highs will only be remembered as a historic footnote.

Ty Gibbs – 2,060 points

From outside looking in a year ago to the fourth seed in 2026, Ty Gibbs may be the most improved driver. Toyota No. 54 finally earned a breakthrough maiden victory at Bristol this spring, and backed it up at Iowa last month. Gibbs’ first career victory came in the midst of a career-best streak of seven-straight top-10s, proving the 54’s adaptability and versatility. Gibbs is a newcomer to any Chase format, but does draw parallels to his 2022 Xfinity Series title-winning year.

“It’s not really different,” Gibbs said. “I mean, obviously the end deal is to win the title. But, it’s the Chase too, so it’s completely different. So, we’ll see. Feels pretty solid though.”

“I think I’m looking forward to all of them besides Talladega. Obviously, it’s a roulette race. But I think all of them for the most part are good tracks.”

“I think this format is better for the people that are more consistent. You know, you could go out and run the race, but suck at all the other ones and just not make it. So, I think it’s a fair format, and I think obviously it’s like the crossover for what the fans want and the teams want, so I think it’s good.”

Despite starting as the fourth seed, inexperience in a Cup postseason may come to bite Gibbs. His early season stretch of consistency proves this team can string together strong results, but this is their first time battling in a Chase. Gibbs did make the 2024 Playoffs, only to flame out that season. Whether or not we see Gibbs as a front-running threat again is unknown. Fourth does mark his best ever seeding to start a postseason run.

Chase Briscoe – 2,055 points

One spot behind Gibbs to start The Chase is teammate Chase Briscoe, who could be a surprise title dark horse. Last year saw the No. 19 Toyota quietly make the Championship finale playoff round, shocking many amid year one at Joe Gibbs Racing. Now with another year’s worth of experience under his belt, Briscoe hopes to reel in the competition again with another title-caliber run.

“I feel like they feel completely opposite truthfully,” Briscoe said. “The stats at the end of the day look very, very similar, but I feel like the two years could not feel any more different. Just from a standpoint of where we’re at as a team and this year our results look the same but we’ve been way faster this year every single weekend. Where last year was a little more sporadic I felt like. So yeah, it definitely feels way different this year than what it did last year.”

“Last year up until the Chase we weren’t really that strong, dominant team. Once the playoffs started, we were arguably the one of the best teams. So yeah, last year when we started, I felt good about it, but I didn’t really know what our true potential was. Where now I feel like we are more than capable of going and winning the championship. It definitely feels different from that standpoint. Like just internally, I would say myself, James (Small, crew chief), the entire team, we feel way better about this year than we did last year just because we kind of know what to expect. We also know what the expectation is now for ourselves just because we kind of do it week in, week out.”

Briscoe’s lone win so far this season came at Chicagoland in July, one of six top-six finishes he’s had in the last nine weeks. If this level of elite performance remains, his 45-point deficit to Hamlin should evaporate quickly. Already having been on a championship doorstep once, Briscoe could bring the heat this time around in The Chase.

Christopher Bell – 2,050 points

NASCAR’s preseason Chase simulations said the top six seeds have overwhelming odds to win the championship. The sixth seed for 2026 is perennial contender Christopher Bell, who’s been struck out of luck all year long. The No. 20 Toyota has yet to find victory lane, but has been runner-up an unprecedented seven times. Bell firmly believes that the championship will run through a Toyota in the top six seeds, so why not team 20 in 2026?

“Can we do this, can we win a championship? Yes,” Bell said. “Without winning, right? Can we win a championship without winning a race? No. That’s my answer. I don’t believe so. “

“Yeah, it feels it does not feel like [winning is] a tall task at all. I think we’re going to win. I think we’re gonna win. Yes, I believe that the champion will be a Toyota.”

“I feel really good about where we’re at. I’m not gonna sit here and tell you that we’re gonna be the champion in 10 weeks, but I think that we’re certainly capable of it. I do believe that the champion will be a Toyota. And, I think the champion will come from the top six seeds. I am pretty confident in those statements. So, we’ll see if they turn out right or wrong. I am confident in those statements.”

Bell seemed pretty adamant in his chances over the next 10 weeks at media day, as the No. 20 has been elite for several years. Bell has finished top-five in points the last four seasons, but has yet to break through to elite title status. Could 2026 finally be the year for the 20? If the second-place pace breaks through, then winning bonus points will help Bell immensely.

Bubba Wallace – 2,010 points

Rounding out the Toyota fleet in the 2026 Chase is Bubba Wallace, who makes his third postseason showing. 23XI Racing’s flagship team has seen two runner-up results this year. These high points came at San Diego in June and a few weeks ago at New Hampshire. Wallace started this year strong out of the gates, but hit the same summer slump as Tyler Reddick. Toyota No. 23 earned five-straight top-11 finishes to open the year, once being as high as second in points. Now starting out as the 14th seed, Wallace hopes to regain some of this early-season success over the 10-week run.

“When you are in the Chase, it is like alright, that flow of nerves kind of settles in, whether it is a lot or a little, it settles in,” Wallace said. “You can’t ignore the fact that the nerves are there. Then yeah, it is time to go. You’ve worked hard all season long to put yourself in this position. Some are in better positions than others. For me, it is exciting for us on the 23 team. Really looking forward to Darlington and the next 10 weeks, but really trying to not get too far out ahead of ourselves. One step at a time. Base hits. Our Toyotas are stupid fast. We’ve recognized that many months ago, and so to just continue to build on that and just have fun and enjoy the moment. I think that is another aspect that we often forget is to enjoy the moment. It is always business as usual and super intense, but you have to have that pressure release valve kind of right there in your hip pocket to keep the emotions in check.”

“Get back on the horse and continue to ride, really. Our cars have only gotten faster since the beginning of the season. We just haven’t done a good job on capitalizing on that. I think for us, it is get to Darlington, a track we have all grown to love and be super successful at, and appreciate that aspect.”

Wallace has had moments of greatness this year that show championship potential. Despite this fact, the points deficit from 14th on the grid is steep. The 23 team has seen late season turnaround efforts before, but it may be too little too late in 2026. Wallace needs nothing short of a season-defining run in Darlington to even be seen with an outside chance moving forward. This Toyota has been runner-up before on The Track Too Tough To Tame, so all hope is not yet lost.

Toyota may be in their best position ever for an all-out championship onslaught. Their stable lays claim to 14 of the opening 26 wins and five of the top six Chase seeds. Joe Gibbs Racing will be gunning for title number six, while 23XI Racing eyes a maiden Bill France Cup. All ends of The Chase are covered by Toyota, with six of the 16 combatants.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to David Jensen/Getty Images