NASCAR
Is Denny Hamlin at a Career Crossroads for 2026?
Still recovering from one of NASCAR’s most gut-wrenching losses in recent memory, Denny Hamlin comes off of one of his best seasons ever. Six wins amidst being 44 years old is rare air for a veteran as experienced as Hamlin. Many questions are left open after such a successful season. Can the Joe Gibbs Racing stalwart match or possibly surpass his incredible year-long campaign in 2026? Starting his 21st Cup Series season at age 45, where is the ceiling for the Virginia short track ace?
Many unknowns swirled around the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota to open 2025. Hamlin’s team showed up to the first few races with a mostly blank hauler. This was caused by longtime primary sponsor FedEx leaving after 2024. This vacancy was eventually piecemealed together, with new anchor partner Progressive Insurance. Team 11 also had a new man at the helm this season; Chris Gabehart was replaced in December by Chris Gayle. Gabehart moved onto a competition director role within JGR, overseeing all four teams. Hamlin and Gayle nearly saw magic out of the gate. The 11 was third in the Cook Out Clash and led on the final lap of the Daytona 500 before being wrecked.
Three weeks later, Hamlin was within a car-length of winning at Phoenix Raceway, settling for second behind teammate Christopher Bell. March did end on a very high noter for Hamlin, with a lights-out showing at Martinsville Speedway. The Progressive Toyota was in the wind that day for 274 of 400 laps. This marked Hamlin’s sixth Grandfather Clock trophy and first in a decade. The next week at Darlington also saw Hamlin’s pit crew come in clutch, earning team 11 back-to-back victories. Hamlin was also within Kyle Larson’s tire tracks, being one spot shy of a three-peat run at Bristol.
Locked into the Playoffs thanks to these two wins, the summer stretch saw a few more high points for Hamlin. Having to skip Mexico City for the birth of his son, this race off was bookended by a win (Michigan) and two more podium results. Hamlin would also tame The Monster Mile at Dover for a second-straight year in July. At this point, the 11 led all drivers with four victories. Reset to the third seed to open the Playoffs, Hamlin had already recorded his winningest year since 2020. There was still a lot of drive and determination left in team 11’s tank, however.
Hamlin played second-fiddle in a JGR Round of 16 sweep, dominating at Gateway from the pole. This elusive fifth win on the year put the 11 through to the next round, and one shy of a career milestone. Following a Round of 12 highlighted with a painful Kansas runner-up, Hamlin had a seventh-straight Round of 8 showing. This semifinal trio of races had been Hamlin’s downfall, however, the last three seasons. The opening race from Las Vegas was arguably Hamlin’s most flawlessly-executed day of the year. Hamlin brought home a momentous 60th career win. With tears in his eyes celebrating, Hamlin knew he might have his best shot yet at the Bill France Cup. Now having two extra weeks to prepare, team 11 was on kill mode once they rolled into Phoenix Raceway.
For 99% of 2025’s Championship finale race, Hamlin’s 11 was the car to beat and usually out front. 208 laps led in the desert set a new Playoff finale record, only to come undone in the 11th hour. William Byron blew a tire and pounded the wall from second with three laps to go, over three seconds behind Hamlin. This led to an overtime finish that rewrote the history book’s chapters just as a nameplate was being engraved. Hamlin led most of the field down pit road before overtime, with Gayle opting to take four tires. Title rival Kyle Larson was among a few to only change right side tires and beat Hamlin back on track.
Hamlin restarted ninth in the two-lap dash, only recovering to sixth at the checkers. With Larson ahead in third, the No. 5 was championship-stage bound. Following one of his most impressive season-long efforts to date, Hamlin had to stew as title runner-up once again.
“I mean, we’re 40 seconds from a championship,” Hamlin said post-race. “I don’t know. It’s just unfortunate. The only difference before is the cautions came maybe a little sooner than that. I don’t know. Gosh, you work so hard. This sport can drive you absolutely crazy ’cause sometimes speed, talent, all that stuff, just does not matter.”
“There’s really not been any post-processing of like you know what you could do different,” Hamlin said later on. “Because I felt like I did exactly what the format asked me to do and it still wasn’t right.”
2025 saw Hamlin match or surpass many Next Gen era performance stats. Can driver 11 run it back in 2026 for an equally stellar season? Hamlin said after winning at both Martinsville and Las Vegas that he dedicated countless hours of sim time to both racetracks.
“I think where I feel like I’ve gotten better with with age is just being able to move on to the next thing. But yeah, I just can’t like I say in the moment I can’t imagine having to go through the process I went through to to prepare for that race, doing it all over again. I just I don’t just see others anyway.”
If even a fraction of this insane level of dedication and work ethic returns for the studious veteran, year 21 could be another banner season. Hamlin made similar remarks about Phoenix Raceway, with his extra prep time thanks to locking in weeks early. There is hardly an oval track on the circuit where the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team didn’t thrive this past season, as evidenced by top-10s in half of their starts. Year two with Chris Gayle atop the pit box will only see his leadership confidence and team-wide communication grow as well. Many expect Hamlin to take a long time to move on from Phoenix. On the contrary, this emotional loss may just fuel an unquenchable fire in driver 11. Over this offseason, a rejuvenated Hamlin may just be gearing up for a new career phase where he may be more dangerous and calculated than ever before.
Two weeks later on his ‘Actions Detrimental’ podcast, Hamlin elaborated more on his willingness to come back and compete again in 2026. “I would have begged Joe [Gibbs] to let me quit had I won that race. I would have because it would have just been the perfect way for me to go out. But they’re not ready for that yet. They’re not, you know, they have to have time to work on my succession plan. And we obviously set a date out now to at least come to when that is, we know what’s the lifeline left. But I would have certainly really really asked him a big favor to let me end on that one had it gone well.”
“[A likely new championship format] doesn’t make me want to race right now in this moment anymore. They could say 36 races, which they’re not. Everyone, just get over it. You’re going to get Playoffs. But it’s still the offseason is still so fresh. I want nothing to do with racing still right now. I’ve got to get some more time. I mean, again, I can’t wait till December 15th or 18th, whenever that part’s done. This year, like I said, it’s just been so full. Does [a format change] make it, you know, more appealing? Yes.”
As of the time of this writing, Denny Hamlin has just turned 45 years old. Nearly three-and-a-half decades ago, an 11-year-old Hamlin met future team owner Joe Gibbs for the first time, promising to one day bring him a NASCAR championship. That child’s dream is still very feasible, with 2026 being attempt number 21 at fulfilling this lifelong goal. Since the exact championship format is still undetermined, the door remains wide open for a multitude of possible contenders next season.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to James Gilbert/Getty Images
