NASCAR
Peter’s 26 Predictions: What Could Unfold Over the 2026 NASCAR Season?
Happy new year everyone! Season 78 of NASCAR racing is almost upon us, now with the calendar turning a new page onto 2026. As with every new season, a lot of change and optimism abounds across all series and in each garage. Here are a few of my predictions for what could happen across the balance of the year in NASCAR for 2026.
New Championship Format Will Get Warm Reception
At the time of this writing, the NASCAR championship format for 2026 is still unknown. Likely to be announced later this month, it will be the first major change to the points structure in eight years. It could be a return to full-season points, a 10-race chase, tweaked elimination rounds, or something in between. No matter what the format is, I do think the industry and fans as a whole will accept the needed change and slowly grow into it amidst the first year.
Bowman Gray Stadium’s Future in the Sport
The very first track NASCAR will visit in the new year happens to be its oldest on the circuit. Historic Bowman Gray Stadium in Winston-Salem, North Carolina first held auto racing in 1939. Currently, the Cook Out Clash is only slated for one more showing at ‘The Madhouse’ in a few weeks. I foresee NASCAR remaining at the flat 1/4-mile bullring in some capacity in years to come. Whether or not The Clash returns, the All-Star Race shifts here, or some other National Series event, the Triad should remain alive with the sounds of racecars.
Generational O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Rookie Class
Jumping down to the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, 2026 may be a year to remember on many fronts. One major preseason storyline is a very stacked crop of rookies ready to take on Saturdays. This list is headlined by: Brent Crews, Corey Day, and Rajah Caruth. These three young talents alone are all very capable of winning races and contending by year’s end. They each inherit some of the best teams on the grid. Other 2026 rookies to watch out for include: Austin Green, Lavar Scott, and Patrick Staropoli.
Hamlin Goes From Heel to Hero
Nobody in NASCAR has seen a more turbulent past year than driver and owner Denny Hamlin. Now 45 years old, Hamlin is coming off a six-win season where he was title runner-up, and hit 60 career victories. Add onto that a new child, settling a lawsuit against the sanctioning body, and recently losing his father, Hamlin’s many emotional stressors come to light. Hamlin’s triumph in the legal battle was a huge win for all race teams, far from just 23XI Racing. Hamlin also currently has condolences far and wide from his father’s offseason passing. These two factors may begin to earn the hated driver some fan sympathy once again.
Rowdy Will Reign Supreme Again
From one hated driver to the villain of yesteryear, it’s been a character-building and humbling two-plus years for Kyle Busch. The two-time champion has gone over 90 starts since his last win, a career-long losing drought. A new crew chief coming onto the RCR No. 8 Chevrolet hopes to right the ship for the future Hall of Famer. I believe that Busch is still a very capable race-winning driver at age 40, and can find victory lane again in 2026.
SVG Will Remain King of the Road Courses
Five road course races across 2026 appear to be all-but give-me wins for Shane van Gisbergen. The New Zealander with Trackhouse Racing already has five-straight victories on the road, and looked more unbeatable each time. Now wearing his No. 97, SVG should remain the man to beat in these five starts. However, nobody has a perfectly unbroken streak of luck. I am willing to give SVG three of these five wins now, but I do think his dominance is tested and possibly beaten in 2026.
Rookie Phenom Zilisch Will Contend
Perhaps the best suited man to end SVG’s reign of terror is rookie teammate Connor Zilisch. The 19-year-old Charlotte native is already a very decorated road course ringer. Zilisch owns a Rolex 24 timepiece trophy, and had 10 Xfinity Series wins last year as a rookie. While it’s lofty expectations to say Zilisch will win on a Sunday, I do think he will be in the mix at least once. Maybe both Trackhouse drivers will battle it out amongst each other for a coveted road course triumph.
RFK Racing Rebounds with Multiple Wins
Speaking of winning on Sundays, that’s exactly what I expect out of RFK Racing in the new year. Amidst an expansion year in 2025, they had all three teams right on the cusp of making the 16-man Playoffs on points. All of their drivers also finished either second or third for a 2025 high point, further showing just how close they all are to regular contention. Despite being shut out of the Playoffs, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece all had breakout runs across 2025’s final 10 weeks. It would not shock me to see multiple victories out of this Ford team in 2026. Perhaps even Preece will have a chance at getting his first career win.
Cup Drivers Reassert Themselves in O’Reilly and Trucks
One often overlooked rule change for NASCAR in 2026 is relaxing Cup driver limitations in O’Reilly and Trucks. Before now, veterans with three years of Cup experience were allowed only five starts per year in each division. That number has been tweaked to eight Truck starts and 10 O’Reilly Series races. Cup drivers are subsequently still barred from the regular season finale, all Playoff races, and championship events. 2025 only saw Cup drivers take five O’Reilly checkered flags and three Truck victories. I expect both of these numbers to rise for 2026, with Cup drivers more apt to compete in these series again. With 2025 dominant drivers Corey Heim and Connor Zilisch both moving on from their respective series too, a lot of wins are up for grabs by potential interlopers.
Ross Chastain Will Max Out Eligible Lower Series Starts
If anyone is eager to get more reps in on Fridays and Saturdays throughout 2026, it’s Ross Chastain. The Trackhouse Racing driver is far from a stranger to making starts with underfunded teams in Trucks and O’Reilly alike. Chastain has multiple Truck or O’Reilly starts from each season dating back to 2022. Expect to see Chastain often behind the wheel of a Niece Motorsports Truck or a DGM Racing O’Reilly entry in the new year, with 18 total chances at bonus racing.
Layne Riggs Becomes Man to Beat in Trucks
As mentioned above, Corey Heim’s exit from the Craftsman Truck Series leaves a wide vacuum for race wins and title contention. The TRICON Garage driver won almost half of the races en route to his 2025 championship, leading laps in every start as well. Heim’s historically dominant season may never be replicated again. However, I do think there will be one standout title threat in 2026. Layne Riggs was not far off from Heim for much of 2025, getting three wins himself with Front Row Motorsports. The No. 34 Ford was also a tiebreaker away from making 2025’s Championship 4, finishing fifth in points.
Year three in the Trucks should be a banner season ahead for the second-generation star from North Carolina. This would follow Riggs’ constant upward progression that’s included Rookie of the Year (2024) and multiple wins last year. The short track ace should be seen as a preseason title favorite. Experience is now in Riggs’ corner at managing a full season’s highs and lows.
Sheldon Creed Finally Wins on Saturday
Entering his fifth year of full-time competition in the O’Reilly Series, nobody’s been closer to more wins but struck out than Sheldon Creed. The 2020 Truck Series champion has a record 15 second-place finishes, but remains 0-136. Now in a Hendrick-aligned Haas Factory Team Chevrolet, Creed may be in his fastest car yet. The Haas entries should be as fast as their JRM counterparts who took 16 wins a season ago. Creed has shown veteran experience and elite performance on every track type. In short, Creed can win just about anywhere. Do not be surprised to see a breakthrough first Creed win possibly open the floodgates for the No. 00.
Allgaier Announces Full-Time Retirement
From one O’Reilly Series veteran to another, 2026 will be season 17 on Saturdays for Justin Allgaier. The 2024 champion has teased that this will be his final full-time season competing in NASCAR. Currently ranked ninth all-time with 28 career wins, Allgaier, 39, has certainly helped shape this series’ modern era. It is not out of the realm of possibility to see Allgaier eclipse the 30 victories threshold, which would tie him at seventh-winningest man in O’Reilly Series history. The Brandt No. 7 Chevrolet has become a mainstay on Saturdays for well over a decade now. If 2026 is Allgaier’s last lap, then he deserves to go out celebrated as a great driver and even greater person.
San Diego Weekend Has On-Track Highlight Reel Moment
Father’s Day Weekend 2026 will mark a new milestone in NASCAR history, with the first ever competition on an active military base. San Diego’s Naval Base Coronado will host all three series, celebrating the nation’s 250th birthday and welcoming racing back to Southern California. Across Trucks, O’Reilly, and Cup, I expect to see at least one on-track instance from this weekend go viral. Racing past fighter jets and aircraft carriers will be a sight to behold. Hype and anticipation is already building up for this first-of-its-kind racing spectacle.
Truckers Will Turn Heads on the Streets of St. Pete
Largely overshadowed by other changes on the 2026 schedule is a new venture for the Craftsman Truck Series. The Truckers will be paired with IndyCar at their opening weekend on the St. Petersburg, Florida street circuit in February. This will be the first-ever street race for the Trucks, acting as an appetizer for San Diego in June. This partnership has the potential to be lightning in a bottle, very similar to past Truck/IndyCar doubleheaders at Texas Motor Speedway. Being broadcast on big FOX as well, this could be the most-viewed Truck race of the season.
IndyCar Driver(s) will run NASCAR Double Duty
St. Pete is not the only chance the IndyCar paddock will have to run alongside NASCAR in 2026. The spring weekend at Phoenix Raceway in March will also see the open wheel series paired with O’Reilly and Cup cars. It would only add onto the prestige for both of these weekends to see cross-pollination between both series. Seeing any IndyCar driver give stock cars a try would raise all ships and bring prominence to both series. Conor Daly stands out as an IndyCar star with NASCAR experience. However, this list could also include Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, or even reigning champion Alex Palou.
International Race Returns for 2027
Following years of preparation and planning, Mexico City marked NASCAR’s first modern foray across borders in 2025. This race is not on the calendar for 2026, but has been rumored to be back on the slate in years to come. Between Autódromo Hermanos Rodriguez and Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, Canada, there should be some international flair on 2027’s NASCAR schedule. Fans in either nation are beyond starved of the sights and sounds of roaring stock cars, either market would be a welcome addition.
Another Cup Standout Run for Corey Heim
Reigning Craftsman Truck Series champion Corey Heim is currently without a full-time ride for 2026. The man who won 12 times and led every conceivable category across last season faces only part-time opportunities in the new year. Heim is expected to make select starts again in the No. 67 Toyota with 23XI Racing, where he ran four times in 2025. This was highlighted with a sixth-place run at the Bristol Night Race in September, further proving his talents are deserving of more chances. Whether or not his schedule expands, I believe he will have another head-turning performance in a Cup race. Should the cards fall right, it is not out of the question to see Heim earn a top-five against NASCAR’s best competition.
Multiple First-Time Cup Series Winners
The list of winless talents in the 2026 Cup Series field is long, stretching nearly to one-third of the grid. Chances are high of a new face or two joining the elite club of NASCAR Cup Series winners. Between Connor Zilisch, Carson Hocevar, Ty Gibbs, Ryan Preece, and others, I do see at least two victory lane newbies coming out of the 2026 season. 2025 only saw one first-time Cup winner with Josh Berry. It is not unreasonable to expect at least a few more new winners from 2026.
RAM Will Win in their Truck Series Return
RAM realigning again in the Craftsman Truck Series with a Kaulig Racing five-team effort will be fun to follow all season long. Already-announced drivers include: Justin Haley, Brendan ‘Butterbean’ Queen, and Daniel Dye, with more still TBD. It is not unreasonable to expect this mammoth undertaking to find success soon. Butterbean Queen took to ARCA and won in very short order despite limited stock car history. Justin Haley, meanwhile, is a very experienced NASCAR veteran who should be seen as a title-level threat. Knowing Haley’s superspeedway prowess, the No. 16 finding victory lane at Daytona in February is realistic. In short, RAM’s Truck Series return should have at least one high point to celebrate in 2026, and perhaps more with their cast of drivers.
A Hall of Famer Will Make Truck Start in Kaulig No. 14
Sticking with Kaulig Racing and the Truck Series, they’ve teased very high-profile drivers for their all-star No. 14 truck. Only three sitting NASCAR Hall of Fame members have ever made a National Series start: Bill Elliott, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Jimmie Johnson. This list could easily grow if rumors are true of Kaulig possibly courting Tony Stewart. Now 54 years old, ‘Smoke’ hasn’t competed in NASCAR since 2016 and not in a truck since 2005. It would be a homecoming two decades in the making if Stewart is able to hop back in a RAM-powered Kaulig entry for a one-off start in 2026.
Dodge Announces O’Reilly/Cup Return for 2027
Staying within the Dodge camp, the American-bred manufacturer appears to be on the cusp of fully embracing NASCAR again. Their return on investment from the Truck Series remains to be seen. They would make an even bigger splash, however, should they rejoin the ranks of O’Reilly and possibly even Cup Series competition for 2027 and beyond. If they start off strong out of the gate in Trucks this year, then any news on Dodge’s NASCAR future could be coming in short order. The list of teams who could join the Stellantis family is quite large, and may mirror any forthcoming announcement.
Prime Video Will Set New Viewership Record
The inaugural year of NASCAR on Prime Video was seen as a successful five-race venture. Their span of the 2025 season averaged 2.1 million viewers per week, and was topped with 2.72 million eyeballs for the Coca-Cola 600. Both of these figures fall short of 2024 stats in these categories, but they mirror the slight dip seen with year one of Thursday Night Football on Prime (2017). For 2026, I think Prime’s average viewership, share of the key 18-34 demographic, and individual race ratings will all rise to new highs. Prime Video has already done an exemplary job of revolutionizing NASCAR broadcasting and introducing innovation. These breakthroughs should only continue in year two, with their first sign on being Charlotte in May.
Chicagoland Speedway Will Have a Highlight Reel Finish
Following six years of fan outcry, Chicagoland Speedway makes a triumphant return to the NASCAR calendar for 2026. The Magnificent Mile and a Half in Joliet, Illinois is eagerly anticipated by drivers and fans alike. The Next Gen Car’s close competition on intermediate tracks possibly teases another all-time classic race here. Independence Day weekend will see ARCA, O’Reilly, and Cup cars all take on the aged asphalt. 2018’s iconic ‘Slide Job’ finish may be a lot to replicate. Regardless, I do see an entertaining finish in this track’s welcome back weekend.
Blaney Sees Another Breakout Season with Three Wins
2023 Cup champion Ryan Blaney perhaps enters 2026 as top dog at Team Penske. Driver 12 has seen three wins apiece in four of the last five seasons. This includes a career-high four victories from 2025. Despite not making the Championship 4 last year, one could argue it was Blaney’s best year yet from a consistency standpoint. This upward trend should continue in 2026, with team 12 being a weekly threat almost everywhere yet again. Now heading into his 11th full-time season, Blaney has his eyes set on a second Bill France Cup. Regardless of format, Blaney is on the short list of drivers who can adapt to thrive under almost any points system.
Multiple Winless 2025 Drivers Find Victory Lane
2025 saw a Next Gen era low point of 14 drivers win a Cup Series race. This likewise left a large amount of drivers struck out from winning over 36 weeks. Nearly a dozen drivers are currently riding a year-plus long losing drought entering 2026. I see multiple names removing themselves from the dry spell list and taking a long-awaited return trip to victory lane. Race teams big and small are all equally represented in this category, with many talented drivers hoping to find greener pastures in the new year.
As is the case with every year of NASCAR, a lot of predictions that look easy on the surface may not happen. On the flip side, surprises lie around every corner at each track on the circuit. It will be fun to look back on this list in a year’s time and see just how 2026 lived up to or surpassed expectations. The clock is winding down on the offseason, with Bowman Gray Stadium and the Daytona 500 both drawing nearer.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Sean Gardner/Getty Images
