NASCAR
2025 Xfinity Series Playoff Preview: Who are the Ones to Beat Over the next Seven Races?
Nearly 6,000 miles of racing over seven months have set the 2025 Xfinity Series Playoff grid at 12 contenders strong. Of these title hopefuls, the top six in standings account for a whopping 16 checkered flags collected so far this year. Calling these teams the cream of the crop in Xfinity may be the ultimate understatement. Here are the top seeds heading into Friday night’s Playoff opener from Bristol Motor Speedway and their championship chances ahead.
Connor Zilisch – 2,064 points
2025’s summer months and many headlines belonged almost exclusively to Connor Zilisch. The rookie in JR Motorsports’ flagship No. 88 Chevrolet has done nothing short of put up one of the most impressive streaks in NASCAR history. 14-straight races have seen the 19-year-old earn a top-five, including six of the last seven wins and four-in-a-row. Stitched in the midst of this incredible run was a scary injury at Watkins Glen. Last month Zilisch fell from his car in victory lane and broke his collarbone. Accompanying surgery has seemingly only made him better, as he’s not lost a race since then. Zilisch admitted that even he’s surprised by this insane level of execution, perfection, and mastery by his team this season.
This historic and generational run by Zilisch has totaled nine wins across 2025’s regular season. To the surprise of few, the 88 cruised to a regular season title uninhibited at Gateway. As a result, the teenage racing prodigy only took home more bonus points. Zilisch now heads to Bristol as the overwhelming championship favorite, thanks to a 59-point cushion above the cut line. The 88 team as a whole appears to have no flaws or weaknesses in sight. Should they win Bristol, it would set an all-time Xfinity Series consecutive victory record. With such a wealth of bonus points, Zilisch is almost assured into the Championship 4 from the start.
Justin Allgaier – 2,035 points
To be the best, 11 others will have to beat the best from 2024–reigning Xfinity champion Justin Allgaier. Now at 39 years old, the JR Motorsports veteran has been the picture of consistency this regular season. The defending champion has earned three victories so far in 2025. His last win came at Nashville in May, however, showing that the summer has been a bit off for team 7. Knowing what it takes to make it all the way to the championship stage though, Allgaier has full confidence that his team can win the biggest trophy once again.
Zilisch enters the Playoffs seemingly with the wind at his back. Meanwhile, Allgaier may be the ultimate snake in the grass. Nobody in this year’s postseason has more experience than the 7, with 2025 marking his record 10th appearance. Thanks to his trio of wins and being regular season championship runner-up, Allgaier is reset as the second seed. No unforced errors should allow the 7 to cruise through this opening round. If Allgaier does run into any issues though, like seen at Gateway, then it may be a tough hole to dig out of for the veteran.
Sam Mayer – 2,016 points
Dating back to July, only one Xfinity Series race has been won by a car NOT from JR Motorsports. Iowa in August marked Sam Mayer’s first win of the season. This was also a maiden win for the rebranded Haas Factory Team. The No. 41 Ford likewise enters the Playoffs as the third seed. They are ready for battle against these JRM heavyweights for the title.
“I feel like I’m really proud of everyone at Haas Factory Team right now, for sure,” Mayer said. “I feel like we’ve definitely had a lot of adversity the last couple of weeks to fight through and we never gave up on each other and we still either stuck solid finishes out of it or we were on the right track to getting a good finish and just didn’t have it go our way. I guess like he said, it’s the 88 and everyone else, which, I mean, that’s what you’re aspiring to do. You want to be the guy that everyone is like, ‘Oh, man. He’s showed up at the racetrack.’ But I feel like we’re making a step in the right direction. With the playoff reset and the way these playoffs are, all of that stuff that you do can not matter in an instant. You just want to be able to peak at the right time. You want to be able to do what you can during these next three races to make it to the next round and then focus on winning a race from there to lock yourself into the Champ 4. Yeah, I feel pretty good about what we have. We definitely aren’t good enough to be dominant like that, but I don’t think we’re too far off from that point.”
“We’ve been good all season. We’ve been really consistent. We’re right there in most top fives on the season of everybody in the Xfinity Series. I think we’re tied of second or something like that, so we’ve had a really good season so far, which is a little frustrating because the playoff points don’t really reflect that. We’ve been oh so close to wins and that’s really all that matters, so I think that we’re in a really good spot. We want to be a little bit better and I think we can be better in the coming races because I think there are a couple good tracks for us. I’m looking forward to it for sure, but it’s definitely gonna be pretty challenging with the height of the competition right now.”
Mayer finds himself in a very unique situation for these Playoffs. Haas is the top Ford team in Xfinity, but they announced a manufacturer change at season’s end. In spite of this, Mayer said winning the title remains Ford’s top priority over the next seven weeks. Can Mayer possibly send Ford out on top with Haas’ second championship in three years? It should be fun to watch team 41 progress over the next few races as the third seed.
Jesse Love – 2,013 points
The first man into the Xfinity Series Playoffs all the way back at Daytona in February was Jesse Love. This win marked four in a row for RCR at the season-opener, but the 2 has been winless ever since. Consistency and being on the doorstep of regular contention is not far off for this team, however. Six of Love’s last seven starts have been top-10s, including a close Iowa runner-up. Love touched on his level of confidence in being able to find victory lane again.
“A couple months ago, we were a sixth, seventh-place team,” Love said. “We’ve obviously shortened that up a lot, and I feel like we’re a top-three team every weekend. There are times where a guy like Aric Almirola comes in and and does Cup driver stuff, right? That works a really high level. But you know, I do feel like if I get to Phoenix that I’m as big of a favorite as anybody. Again, that was the race that I was leading on the green-white-checkered last year. So I’m not at all worried if I do get to Phoenix having a shot to beat the 88 and the 7. But yeah, I mean, I honestly feel really confident going into the Playoffs. I don’t feel like as a whole, there’s people quite a bit more consistent than we are other than the 88. And the 41’s done a really good job, too, being consistent this year. The 7 is a little bit of a roulette wheel, but he can obviously operate at a really high level any given weekend. So I feel like those are kind of your four guys that obviously have done a really good job this year and put themselves in position. But I know that if I get to Phoenix, that at least in my mind, and I’m a realistic person, I can be as favored as I could be going into that race.”
“If we knew [where JRM was better], we wouldn’t be behind them, right? But at the same time, it’s a moving target, right? Some weeks it’s different than others. But right now there is just that kind of glaring sore thumb, which is that we just a little bit off on overall speed. I’ve ran a lot of laps this year second place to Connor [Zilisch] and have done a lot of different things and moved a lot of different things around. And I still haven’t been able to quite close the gap. So in that run of the race, right, I study a lot of it on SMT and run through my different values in the car. And you know, sometimes it’s a little bit of execution, sometimes a little bit of speed, sometimes it’s a little bit of Connor naturally doing something different than I am doing in the car. So again, it is a moving target, but I do feel really confident as a whole that our company at RCR is like moving in the right direction, especially with our Xfinity program. We’re closing the gap like we knew we needed to do. And we’re doing it at a quicker rate than I thought we were going to as well. So yeah, but like I said, if obviously we knew the answer, then we wouldn’t be having the conversation.”
2024’s Rookie of the Year and eighth-place finisher, Jesse Love aims higher in his sophomore season. Already starting out as the fourth man on the Playoff grid, Love needs to merely protect the cushion he already has from the hungry drivers below him. Three top-10s should be enough for the 2 to make the second round. Talladega lies in this treacherous middle stretch. Some drivers look towards the Alabama superspeedway with fear. Love meanwhile is beaming for another chance at a drafting win. One of the highest touted young prospects in Xfinity today, Love should not be counted out of championship conversations.
Brandon Jones – 2,013 points
Aside from Justin Allgaier, no 2025 Xfinity Series contender has as much Playoff experience as Brandon Jones. Shockingly making his first postseason in three years, Jones ended his long losing drought by finding victory lane at Darlington in April. Jones has been carrying the banner for Joe Gibbs Racing ever since. The 20 is now poised to bring the Toyota powerhouse another championship.
“I’ve done a good job, in my opinion, and it’s getting taken advantage of a little bit,” Jones said. “But through the regular season, cutting guys breaks and just trying to make it to the end of some races sometimes, recognizing if I have a good enough car to go for it. If I don’t have a car to win, trying to just take my licks and try to finish races. But now that we’re here and now that I’ve made it again to the Playoffs, that has to change. It has to amp itself up some. And I’m not talking about driving beyond my limits and wrecking racecars and destroying people. That’s not how you win a championship. That’s not how you’re going to get there. But recognizing the days that, ‘okay, this car can win the race, like 100%, we’re going to go compete for it.’ Then those are the days that you can’t cut anybody any breaks. I mean, if you get a run on somebody and they choose to go down and block you, you can’t just hit the brake pedal at that point. They’ve made their bet to, ‘well, we know Brandon’s faster, but you know, I’m going to try to hold him back there,’ and rightfully so. They don’t want to lose a position. You can’t say, ‘oh, you’re right. I’m going to give it to you and not wreck you,’ because that doesn’t go into competitors minds as, ‘oh man, thank you so much for cutting a break.’ That turns into, ‘I can block him and he’s not going to wreck me.’ So, it has to ramp itself up in that aspect a little bit. On the flip side, the days that you think ‘maybe today I’m only fifth that best. I’m really struggling to get to fifth.’ Those are not the days that you go up there to the lead and start running into people and charging through people because those are going to be the times you start making enemies and you don’t want to rub somebody the wrong way. I don’t rub people the wrong way in the sport. If there’s anything, like I said, it’s the opposite, right? So, I must learn how to crank that up just a little bit. I’ve got to own the 10-year veteran mindset in the sport. And we’ve got speed to go win these races. I look at the Playoffs, five out of the seven, let’s just exclude Talladega and the (Charlotte) ROVAL because they’re wild cards. I can be leading those easily and get destroyed, out of spite. So, the ones that I feel like we can go have good days at, the Playoffs line up really well for me, the tracks that are in it.”
“I think where the experience is going to get me farther than some of the other competitors is knowing how to manage the pressure, the stress, and the races. I foresee lots of mistakes being made. A lot of guys will be very fast and try to get more than they really need to get. It comes down to constantly late race restarts in the Xfinity Series and desperation sets in very fast. I have this weird picture in my mind of a lot of people truthfully taking themselves out of contention. Hopefully, we can use the years that I’ve been in this and all the things I’ve learned to our advantage and try to put one nice push at it as we go through these next couple rounds.”
Entering 2025’s Playoffs in fifth ties Brandon Jones’ best postseason seeding, and puts him within striking distance of a top-four berth. Jones has displayed enough consistency before to be on the doorstep of a Championship 4 showing. Will 2025 finally be the year where Jones makes it to the final dance?
Sammy Smith – 2,009 points
The third man from JRM’s fabulous four, Sammy Smith secured his Playoff bid after being rewarded April’s Rockingham win. The 8 has been very up and down in the months since, but seen two top-threes in recent weeks. Far from a Playoff newcomer, Smith knows his team has all the resources needed for a deep run ahead.
“I think it’s a couple different things,” Smith said. “Execution, a little bit of speed, but yeah certainly they’ve been very fast this year. I feel like we’ve had a lot of pace, need to clean up a couple things, but I feel like these next couple of weeks we will be able to do that and be the new storyline.”
“I think obviously as a whole JR Motorsports is at the top. We’ve been able to maximize on when our stuff is running well, and just be focused on our weaknesses. That’s what we’re planning on doing in the Playoffs. I think all four teams have worked really good together up until this point. I’m sure things will change a little bit as we get ramped up into the Playoffs, and the intensity picks up. But I’m looking forward to it going to Bristol this weekend.”
“For us I feel like it’s been an up and down year. We’ve faced a lot of adversity, mostly caused by ourselves with a couple different situations. It was good to be able to win there early in the season and have that locked in [after race 10]. I think it’s been a good year for us, we certainly are not where we expect or want to be by no means, we’re pushing everyday to try to be better and try to get ready for the Playoffs. I feel like we’re ready for the Playoffs.”
Half of Sammy Smith’s last six starts have seen the 8 finish seventh or better, including a second-place run at Daytona. This team appears to be peaking in perfect time for a possible Cinderella Playoff run, where they start ranked sixth. Smith’s two aforementioned teammates are clearly the best Xfinity has to offer so far in 2025. Can the 8 possibly join them as a title threat?
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Chris Graythen/Getty Images
